Deciding to promote prospects is complicated process for Cubs
Will moving players through the minor leagues faster help accelerate the Cubs' rebuild?
Probably not, but every situation will be different.
While the Cubs spent Saturday showing off success stories from their "pitch lab" with Matt Swarmer and Caleb Kilian, most of the organization's highest-rated prospects are still in the lower levels.
They made a significant move earlier this week, promoting outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to High A South Bend. Crow-Armstrong has been flying up top prospects lists, hitting No. 48 by Baseball America this week.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer talked recently about the process of deciding when to move minor-league stars to the next level.
"We try to be really structured about it," Hoyer said. "Whenever anyone is getting to a place where they are a potential promotion, we have a promotion report that goes around and we start talking about it.
"It's not just about the guy's numbers, but it's also about what were the goals are at that level this year. The guy might have a great triple-slash line, but if he's still chasing too much and we know he's going to get exposed at the next level, we won't do it."
Crow-Armstrong was a 2020 first-round pick, No. 19 overall, acquired by the Cubs in last year's Javy Baez trade with the Mets. At Low A Myrtle Beach, Crow-Armstrong had one of great triple-slash lines, hitting .354/.443/.557 - which includes batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Crow-Armstrong went 2-for-13 at the plate in his first three games at South Bend, but slow starts at a higher level aren't usually cause for concern. Two of the Cubs' top-10 prospects by MLB Pipeline turned things around already this season.
Outfielder Owen Caissie, part of the Yu Darvish trade with San Diego, hit .122 in April for South Bend, then .313 in May. Third baseman James Triantos, a second-round pick in 2021, hit .337 in May at Myrtle Beach, after starting at .260 in April. MLB Pipeline has Triantos rated the Cubs' No. 4 prospect, just behind Crow-Armstrong, and Caissie No. 8.
Being aggressive paid off for the Cubs when they called up Christopher Morel after he played just 10 games in Triple A, none this year. With a .386 on-base percentage through his first 18 games, Morel already looks like the leadoff hitter the Cubs have lacked since Dexter Fowler left.
One minor-leaguer who seems ready to step on the escalator is left-handed pitcher D.J. Herz. The 2019 eighth-round pick has a 1.45 ERA in South Bend and in his most recent outing, struck out 12 and allowed 1 hit in 5 innings.
"We try to be really structured about it, then we'll start that dialogue," Hoyer said. "If it leads to a promotion, that's great. If it leads to maybe realizing we need to wait two more weeks, we'll do that. It's no haphazard by any stretch."
Of course, the cautionary tales are numerous. Two of the Cubs' top prospects, OF Brennen Davis (back) and SS Ed Howard (hip) had surgery and will be out for a while.
Flame-throwing left-hander Brailyn Marquez, once the Cubs' top prospect, hasn't pitched in a game since making his major-league debut at Guaranteed Rate Field in 2020. Another former top prospect, catcher Miguel Amaya, won't play this season due to Tommy John surgery.
Winning records in the minors don't necessarily mean major-league success awaits. In 2016, the Eloy Jiminez-led South Bend squad dominated the Midwest League. So Myrtle Beach's 35-13 record doesn't mean much.
Look back at a list of the Cubs' top prospects in 2018, and besides Adbert Alzolay, the top names are unrecognizable. But in theory, the flurry of trades last summer helped rebuild the Cubs' farm system. So they're hoping this is more like 2014, when Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Albert Almora were all ranked in the top 20 overall list.
The best news about the Cubs' minor-league system is the depth. Morel was the Cubs' No. 21-ranked prospect. Swarmer isn't ranked in the top 30. OF Yohendrick Pinango set a South Bend Cubs record with a 17-game hitting streak, while 6-foot-6 OF Kevin Alcantara, a product of the Anthony Rizzo trade, is hitting rockets in Myrtle Beach.
"You can never have enough depth and you'll never get to the point of feeling like your system is good enough," Hoyer said. "But I feel like we're on the right track."
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