McGraw: How long can Bulls stay on top of East?
Nobody expected the Bulls to reach the all-star break tied for first in the Eastern Conference.
So what can be expected for the rest of the regular season? Let's break it down by categories:
Strength of schedule
By the numbers, the Bulls have the NBA's second-toughest schedule the rest of the way, behind Milwaukee. The Bulls and Bucks will face each other three more times, so that's a big part of what makes the two slates difficult.
But it's really nothing to worry about, since so much is dependent on health or rest. The toughest game left on the Bulls' schedule is at Phoenix on Mar. 18 and Chris Paul has already been scratched from that one with a thumb fracture.
The Bulls face East co-leader Miami twice more and are 0-2 against the Heat so far. So maybe Miami is a better team, or maybe it's too soon to tell, since DeMar DeRozan missed one of those games - and Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent combined to go 7-for-11 from 3-point land in the fourth quarter of the other.
March is very road-heavy for the Bulls because the United Center is hosting an NCAA Tournament regional, but they can grab some late momentum with a five-game homestand before the season finale in Minnesota. Going 12-11 the rest of the way gets them to 50 wins.
Good health
The Bulls have never played with a full roster this season, considering Patrick Williams went out in Game 5 and Coby White debuted in Game 14. They've had everyone but Williams for four games during the week of Thanksgiving.
The Bulls went 2-2 during that mostly-full-strength stretch, which included a loss at Houston and the aforementioned home loss to Miami, when the Heat had a two-day rest advantage.
So when should the Bulls expect some of their injured players back? Zach LaVine should be ready to go when the games resume Thursday against Atlanta and there are just four sets of back-to-backs remaining, so maybe his sore left knee can handle the workload.
This next part is a wild guess, but let's project Alex Caruso (wrist) and Williams (wrist) to return the second week in March maybe and Lonzo Ball (knee) a week or two later. Ball posted an Instagram video of him bouncing around his living room during the all-star break, which seems promising.
The real trick will be keeping everyone else healthy. The Bulls won't last long in the playoffs unless they're at full strength, or close to it.
Tristan Thompson
The veteran big man signed over the break and should make his Bulls debut Thursday. He's certainly an upgrade as the backup center, and rebounding has always been his best skill.
It's hard to imagine a scenario where Thompson is playing instead of Nikola Vucevic late in a game or next to Vucevic at power forward. Maybe it will allow the Bulls to do some offense-defense substitutions in the fourth quarters, and give Vucevic a break when it comes to guarding someone like Philadelphia's Joel Embiid or Miami's Bam Adebayo.
Sixers/Nets
These teams provide two huge variables in the East. How will James Harden mesh with Embiid in Philadelphia? When will Ben Simmons make his season debut with the Nets?
The Bulls were one of the few teams to face Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the same lineup on Jan. 12, and that group looked pretty good. Now the Nets have Simmons, and also added some depth with Seth Curry and Andre Drummond.
The Bulls will face the 76ers once more on March 7 and are done with Brooklyn. Another potential East addition is Miami's Victor Oladipo, who has been rehabbing a knee injury all season.
Outlook
As has been mentioned before, the Bulls could turn out to be a team that's not built for the playoffs and lose early. But if DeRozan is playing anywhere near his recent level, they'll have a chance against any team in the East.
The best-case scenario is finishing top 2 in the East, which would mean facing a team from the play-in tournament in the first round and potentially homecourt advantage in the second round.
Or look at it this way: What could go wrong? Just about everything.
Twitter: @McGrawDHSports