'Proportionality' and the challenge facing Biden, Europe
No one is sure what Vladimir Putin is going to do.
Smash and grab, inflicting pain on Ukraine and then a pull back? March to Kyiv? Artillery or missile strikes across the border? Sabotage carried out by Russian special forces? Cyberattacks? Or, find a face-saving way to back off? Even Russians are surprised that Putin has pushed things this far.
President Biden's unfortunate turn of phrase - "limited incursion" - was quickly cleaned up by the White House and should not do any lasting damage, but it reflects something the President knows he must deal with and that is the concept of proportionality.
In general, the response by the U.S. and its allies should be proportionate to the act if for no other reason that this is all that the politics of the situation will bear. One hundred thousands troops streaming across the Ukrainian border is one thing, a series of cyber attacks is another. Not everyone adheres to the idea of proportionality. Israel, given the threats it faces, has long made it a policy to hit back disproportionately to try to deter future attacks.
However, in the case of Russia, this does matter because holding the NATO alliance together and responding as one is going to be extremely difficult. The fissures are there for all to see.
American Senators are busy competing to see who will be perceived to be toughest on Russia and a bill by Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, is making its way to a vote, but passing a bill is one thing, implementing it is left to the White House, and sanctions only work if all involved are pulling on their oars in the same direction.
Some European leaders - think NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg - have been absolutely steadfast in their warnings to Russia, but most people are watching Germany. Angela Merkel has moved on. In her place is a three-party coalition headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Given the newness you would expect Scholz to move cautiously.
Of particular issue is the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which - when activated - would double the flow of natural gas from Russia. The U.S. has long opposed it arguing that Europe in general and Germany in particular should not allow Russia to have that kind of economic leverage. Chancellor Merkel, following the long German tradition of trying to balance working with Russia while maintaining solidarity with the U.S., pushed forward with the pipeline. Now comes a moment of truth.
Gas prices in Europe have skyrocketed, and consumers are looking for relief. As such, the majority of Germans, while wary of Russia, wants the spigot turned on and their bills to shrink.
And it is not the only issue. Germany is reportedly also wary of cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system that facilitates financial transactions among the world's largest banks. Germany fears blowback and economic disruption.
This tug of war between domestic politics and security obligations is a constant in international affairs. That said, one wonders what new German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was thinking during her joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, when he asserted that "Russia does not threaten anybody" even as more Russian troops arrive daily at the Ukrainian border.
In this moment of great uncertainty, there is one thing that we do know. An army of American diplomats is working throughout Europe and beyond to stiffen spines and orchestrate the devastating response to any Russian aggression that President Biden has promised. If the President can achieve that end and make Vladimir Putin blink, then credit should be given where credit is due.
• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86.