Arkush: Do Bears have enough in their tank to hang with the Packers?
If we get the two teams we last saw — Bears vs. Cardinals and Packers vs. Rams before the bye — and Aaron Rodgers is under center the Bears have little chance of even making it a game let alone upsetting the Packers Sunday night.
But ... even coming off a bye week neither Rodgers nor offensive tackle David Bakhtiari practiced all week. The return of Bakhtiari's, linebacker ZaDarius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander Sunday night seem unlikely.
As for Rodgers, don't get too pumped Bears fans. Two full weeks of rest for his injured toe would give him the best shot at being as close to 100 percent as he can be the rest of the way.
There are signals the Bears will be as healthy as they've been for a while with Allen Robinson and Justin Fields ready to go, and don't discount the impact a supreme effort could have for 53 guys who know how badly they've disappointed to date. But they will still be without Akiem Hicks, who was officially ruled out Saturday.
The Bears are 12½ point underdogs and the over/under is 44.
Matchups to watch
David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, Bears O-line vs. Packers Run 'D'
Montgomery has become the leader of the Bears offense in Robinson's and Fields' absence and running the football is the one thing the Bears offense does well.
Green Bay's Run 'D' is much improved, 8th overall, but they are just 17th in average gain per run allowed and it is still the best way to attack the Packers defense.
Clark has become a game-wrecker and is the Packers best defensive player, neutralize him and you have a chance.
Coaching decision(s)
Is Matt Nagy willing to ground his aerial attack and fully commit to the run?
The Bears have one formula for success here; totally commit to the ground game, rush for a buck forty or more, steadily move the chains (Packers 'D' 27th on 3rd down), own the clock to keep Rodgers off the field, score touchdowns in the red zone and they could earn a TKO.
We're not talking a Belichickian 3 pass attempts, go for a few explosives with some play action, but Bears will not win here trying to run the “Kansas City offense.”
Player(s) to watch
Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, De'Vondre Campbell, Rashan Gary and Eric Stokes
It goes without saying all eyes are on Rodgers, Davante Adams and Clark whenever they're on the field.
But Jones' knee is worth keeping an eye on as he's the “other” weapon folks keep assuming Rodgers doesn't have and Dillon has become as good a “body puncher” as you'll find in the league.
Campbell is now the leader of this defense and one of the best free agency signings of the year, Gary is still inconsistent but has become a playmaker and Stokes has been their best corner in Alexander's absence.
X-factor(s)
Packers Rodgers, Bakhtiari, Z. Smith, Alexander, Randal Cobb; Bears Robinson
Who plays and how much will they contribute?
Player(s) who could surprise
Packers WR Allen Lazard, TE Josh Duguara, CB Rasul Douglas and DT Kingsley Keke
Bears WR's Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd, CB Artie Burns
Lazard and Duguara are receivers that haven't become what the pack hoped for yet but they do make occasional big plays, Douglas has been a key in season addition since Alexander went down and Keke is an occasionally sneaky pass rusher.
Bears QB's have been looking a bit more for Byrd, Grant has been an explosive waiting to go off since he got to Chicago and Burns is a former 1st round Draft choice Rodgers is certain to be looking for which will give him his chances.
Key stats
Packers 19 Takeaways (9th), 10 Turnovers (Tie 1st), + 9 differential (Tie 4th)
Bears 11 Takeaways (29th), 19 Turnovers (Tied 23rd), -8 differential (Tie 29th)
Final word
Packers 27, Bears 20
Matt Nagy has clearly not lost his locker room and this is probably his guys' last, best chance to dramatically impact the narrative for him and themselves. And they will be healthier. In a perfect world for the Bears with Rodgers under center the most realistic hope is they keep it a game.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush