What's next for Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace? Everything is on the table
It's the most talked about subject in Chicago sports: Should Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy keep their jobs?
Sadly most of it is based on nothing more than emotion and the silly misnomer that some media and fans actually think they know as much or more about the game as the Bears brain trust.
But the emotion is understandable. When the Bears duo became coach and executive of the year in that first 2018 campaign and then entered the franchise's 100th anniversary season as the hottest story in the league, the bar was set somewhere over the moon.
All rookie coaches are expected to fail before they succeed but Nagy and Pace never got that chance.
They haven't failed, they just succeeded too soon.
But that's not to say either Matt Nagy or Ryan Pace have done all they should have with the resources they've been given in their first 3½ seasons together and deserve a shot at a fifth season.
There are no clear guidelines or statistical proof as to what makes a coach or GM worth keeping, but there are some comps worth looking at.
Of the seven coaches hired to start the 2018 season, Mike Vrabel leads the pack with a 36-21 record and two playoff appearances with the Tennessee Titans.
Colts coach Frank Reich is 32-25 and also has two playoff appearances.
Right behind Reich is Nagy with a 31-26 record and two playoff appearances.
While you are free to demand and argue that you deserve more, when you consider that Nagy inherited a team that was 19-45 in the four seasons before he arrived, winning as many as six games once, you cannot argue that he's failed.
My favorite Nagy comp when it comes to separating reality and emotion is Kyle Shanahan.
Shanahan is 32-40 with the 49ers over one more season than Nagy, he has just one playoff trip, albeit that ended in a Super Bowl loss, and the other three of his four completed seasons have all been losing years with a combined record of 16-32.
Yet we constantly hear fans and media yearning for Shanahan or another coach like him over Nagy? Why?
I can't answer the Shanahan phenomenon but there certainly is a case to be made that Nagy has reached his limits and it's time for a change.
He was brought here to bring the Bears offense into the 21st century and it is currently the worst in the league.
He was stubborn to the point of near foolish before finally relinquishing play-calling duties that were keeping him from being a full-time head coach.
And then there is the failure at quarterback and both Nagy and Pace are responsible for their rush to cast each Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles and Andy Dalton aside for the next shiny object that is now Justin Fields.
Everyone in Chicago should be head over heels to have Fields, and it seems we all are, but we can't really evaluate the coach's or the GM's QB work until we see who both Trubisky and Fields are, and if there is anything left to the careers of Foles and Dalton.
And how about one more complicating factor?
Ryan Pace should not be blamed for John Fox. It's a subject for a different column but trust me on that one.
But if Nagy has failed as a head coach, doesn't it have to mean that Pace did enough to win with the right coach or vice versa, if Pace has failed as a GM that with all the winning Nagy has done he's overachieved?
The culture is dramatically improved and there is young talent developing.
No one can argue this duo hasn't been a dramatic improvement over their predecessors, but without a playoff win, let alone a Super Bowl, unless it happens this year you can certainly argue they haven't improved enough.
But there is one more consideration to make.
With no true football person above them in the organization, what are the odds that if the plug is pulled, the next hires will be better?
New is rarely better in the NFL, but sometimes you just have to try.
Nagy and Pace have eight more weeks to make their case and all that is certain now is that nothing is certain yet.
@Hub_Arkush