Rozner: Do Chicago Cubs have to fear randomness of postseason?
In the late 1990s, the Yankees won the World Series four times in five years and came within two outs of making it five of six in 2001 when Arizona rallied to win in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7.
Since then, we've been sold on the belief that baseball has become as random as a roll of the dice, where any team making the tournament can win the title.
Well, no kidding. Any team qualifying for the playoffs has a chance to run the table.
But the reason "random" is used so much to describe the MLB postseason is probably because it's tough to make predictions and it's easier to simply say that anything can happen.
That insistence, however, minimizes the great teams that have won World Series in the last 15 years.
"It's not fair to say randomness," said Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who won a pair of World Series with Theo Epstein in Boston. "Listen, we award a trophy at the end of the year and what people remember are not division championship flags or banners. They remember World Series banners, and if you get one you earned it.
"Series are short in the postseason and a bounce here or there can change things, but ultimately the team that holds the trophy at the end of the year is the best team.
"That's how we look at it."
The 2002 Angels won 99 games, the '04 Red Sox won 98, the '05 White Sox won 99, the '07 Red Sox had 96 and the '09 Yankees had 103. The 2013 Red Sox won 97 games and defeated the 97-win Cardinals.
Hardly sounds like those teams got lucky.
The 2010 and 2012 Giants (92 wins and 94 wins) had dominant postseason starting pitching, and the 2014 Giants had too much Madison Bumgarner for the Kansas City Royals, much like the 1988 Dodgers survived mostly on Orel Hershiser and one magic moment from Kirk Gibson.
Those 2014 World Series participants won only 88 and 89 games respectively, which fuels the perception that anyone can get hot at the right time.
Again, that concept is as old as sports.
The 2015 Royals won 95 games and were the best team in baseball for a considerable portion of the season, playing an enviable style on offense and relying on a lockdown bullpen.
The 2011 Rangers (96 victories) needed only a flyball caught in right field and they would have taken down the Cardinals, who weren't exactly a joke, having won 90 games that season.
So there's plenty of evidence to suggest great teams win the World Series consistently, usually beating a great team on the other side.
There have been a few odd postseasons. As you know too well, the 2003 Marlins caught fire and took out the Giants, Cubs and Yankees to win it all, but the Marlins were still a 91-win team and possessed a dominant Josh Beckett.
The 2008 Phillies (92 wins) hit their stride right when the playoffs began and got by on great starting pitching and a brilliant closer.
The 2006 Cardinals might give the biggest offense, having won just 83 games in the regular season, taking out the 96-win Mets in the NLCS and the 95-win Tigers in the World Series.
No, the best team doesn't always win, due to several different factors.
You can run into a hot pitching staff, as the Cubs did last October in the NLCS against the Mets.
Your pitchers can run out of gas at the worst possible time.
Weather can destroy an offense.
Or a single horrific defensive play can change the postseason entirely.
That's sports. There's never a promise.
Still, the suggestion that anything can happen is a bit simplistic.
The Cubs have been the best team in baseball all season, and if they play the same way in the postseason, they're going to win the World Series.
They have the No. 1-ranked rotation in baseball, the top-ranked bullpen in batting average against and - according to FanGraphs - the best defense in the majors.
The offense has scored more runs than all but two teams in baseball, one of which plays in Coors Field and the other in Fenway Park, while the wind blew in at Wrigley Field for much of the first four months of the season.
Their run differential is by a mile the best in baseball.
A team this good is well positioned to win the World Series.
"You build a team to get through the marathon. Now, the next phase begins and you have to win short series," Hoyer said. "We have to be fresh and sharp on Oct. 7. We've celebrated the marathon and the sprint is about to begin.
"I think we've put ourselves in a good position and now it's a matter of executing, and we have a lot of guys like (Jon) Lester, (Ben) Zobrist, (Jason) Heyward and (John) Lackey who came here to win a World Series."
So we can talk about luck and bounces and random occurrences, but the truth is if the Cubs' starting pitching dominates in October the way it has the last five-plus months, the Cubs will be in really good shape.
If they don't, the Cubs could go out in the first round.
That wouldn't be random. That would be bad pitching.
And that's baseball.
brozner@dailyherald.com
• Listen to Barry Rozner from 9 a.m. to noon Sundays on the Score's "Hit and Run" show at WSCR 670-AM and follow him on @BarryRozner on Twitter.