Indiana unlikely to pick nominee, still draws candidates
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Indiana is unlikely to have a king-making role in the 2016 presidential primaries like it did in 2008 when President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton sought the Democratic nomination. But that doesn't mean candidates are ignoring the state.
Complex ballot qualification requirements, a loyal GOP donor base and the far-from-decided Republican primary have lured candidates and political operatives here in recent months, despite its back-of-the-pack May 3rd primary date.
"The voter petition drives in Indiana are a lot different than other states," said former Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker, who is working with the Clinton campaign. For Democrats, he said, there's an upside to the early start: "It gets you building a campaign apparatus. We'd love to put Indiana back in play like in 2008."
Here's a look at the key factors for this primary season:
FUNDRAISING
Republicans have carried all but one presidential election in Indiana since 1964, and there's a strong donor base that GOP campaigns happily tap into.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush has raised the most from Indiana's Republicans so far, collecting about $225,000; about $150,000 came from the Indianapolis metro area, according to the Federal Election Commission. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has raised about $115,000, mostly also from the Indianapolis area.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson have also done well, collecting smaller donations - $115,000 and $180,000, respectively - from a larger base that is spread out across the state.
For Democrats, Hillary Clinton, who was in Carmel for a fundraiser in June, has pulled in about $405,000, with roughly $250,000 coming from the greater Indianapolis area.
BALLOT QUALIFYING
It takes only $1,000 and a signed declaration of candidacy to get on the ballot in New Hampshire. The bar in Indiana is considerably higher, which means campaigns have to organize petition drives and fan out across the state to get the necessary voter signatures.
"Those who are doing it now are smart - they have long-term glasses on," Republican strategist Pete Seat said, pointing to the last presidential primary when several GOPers failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot. "If you can't figure out how to get on the ballot, maybe it says something?"
In Indiana, each candidate needs 500 voter signatures from each of the state's nine congressional districts. But campaigns usually try for signatures in all 92 counties and collect 1,000 of them in case some are ruled invalid. Each signature must be verified by election officials in the county where the voter is registered, which can pose a logistical challenge because there is a tight, one-month window to get the signatures validated and submitted to the Secretary of State's office.
Clinton, Rubio, Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich all have campaign workers on the ground collecting signatures, though Brad King, co-director of the Secretary of State's Election Division, says inquiries have been made by most campaigns.
VOTER SURVEY
Establishment candidates may be the ones fielding larger efforts to get on the ballot, but there are flashes in Indiana of the anti-establishment mood taking hold in the GOP contest.
A recent WISH TV-Ball State poll, which did not distinguish findings based on political party, found Donald Trump and Carson leading the Republican field in Indiana, with more than 20 percent of those surveyed said there is a "good chance" they would vote for either of the two in the general election.
Carly Fiorina, Cruz and Rubio all polled around 12 percent; about 10 percent said they would consider voting for Bush.
Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton led the field, with nearly 22 percent of those surveyed saying they would consider voting for her next November. But like Trump - whom 56.5 percent opposed - Clinton also had a lot of negative ratings, with about 54 percent saying they would not vote for her. About 19 percent said they would consider voting for Bernie Sanders.