No addition is do-or-die for Cubs

Theo Epstein has been to a few winter meetings.

So what does he expect this week in San Diego?

"A typical winter meetings, like the ratio of talk to action will be about 50-to-1," he said.

Truth be told, the winter meetings are just one stop in a long winter off-season, but they do provide good fodder for rumors, as Epstein alluded. A lot of work gets done before the meetings, and much more gets done afterward.

The Cubs made a huge splash a month ago, hiring Joe Maddon as their manager. They've been working on getting Maddon some players so they can contend in 2015, but it's taking some time.

"We're not on hold," Epstein said. "We're working on a lot of fronts. Obviously, when there's a potential impact player involved, it does shape a little bit the course of your short-term thinking.

"If you get a player who makes a significant difference for you in the standings, then you prioritize toward creating a winning roster immediately around that player, whereas if the off-season goes in a slightly different direction, organically, you continue to think a little bit longer term."

Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer continue to say they are not going to "sell out" the Cubs' future to win in 2015, even as they've stated as their goal to contend for the National League Central crown next season.

They'd take a big step toward that goal if they can sign the free-agent pitcher everybody's talking about and will be talking about in San Diego: left-hander Jon Lester.

The Cubs are considered one of the favorites to land Lester. Whether a reported offer of six years and $138 million gets it done for the Cubs remains to be seen, but Epstein knows full well the risks and rewards of the free-agent game.

"You have to be aggressive if you hope to get something done," he said. "In this current landscape, a lot of teams have money, and good players are at a premium. There's more demand than there is supply for elite players, there's no doubt about that.

"But you also have to maintain some sense of discipline and limits and long-term perspective. If you go into free agency thinking you're one player away and you need any one player at all costs, you're probably going to end up getting burned. You're probably going to end up with an organization not as healthy as it can be years down the line.

"That said, there are players who are important and there's a time to be very aggressive and a time to know what you want and do everything in reason to get it. You have to balance those interests. I think I said free agency is not for the faint of heart, and it's not - both ways."

There are few short answers with Epstein, so he elaborated further on this.

"You have to be prepared to be ultra-aggressive if you want to come way with what you're looking for, and you also have to be prepared to fail," he explained. "You have to be able to accept not landing the player because there are always other alternatives, and you can't go in to any pursuit at all costs, throwing reason to the wind.

"You also have to be prepared to fail when you do land the player; contracts don't always work out. So the key in that respect is to build the organization up to a point where you can recover from any one player not performing and you have young players ready to step in."

Epstein added he feels the Cubs have built an organization to the point where it can be aggressive, "but we're not going to enter into any one negotiation as if it's do or die."

Let's remember, too, that Epstein has said several times since the end of the 2014 season that acquiring impact pitching will be a 12-to-15-month process, meaning that if they don't land a Lester this winter, there is always the July 31 trading deadline and next off-season, when there will be plenty of plum pitching available.

The Cubs tried to land a catcher, but they weren't willing to outbid the Toronto Blue Jays for Russell Martin, who signed a five-year, $82 million deal to play in his native land of Canada.

Epstein repeated the Cubs have confidence in Welington Castillo, and the presence of new quality-assurance coach and former Cubs catcher Henry Blanco should help Castillo's development.

With so many young players on the big-league roster already and soon to join the team, the Cubs also would like to add some veterans to the roster to help show the kids the way.

The Cubs have money left over from last off-season, when they missed out on pitcher Masahiro Tanaka.

Even though the organization seems to be in better financial shape than what it was three years ago when Epstein came to town, it still will be a few years before money from a new TV contract comes in and all the revenues from a renovated Wrigley Field can be put to full use.

"I think there will be a time when we're the feared team in free agency, the team with all the resources that others hope don't get involved in the negotiations because of the implications that we'll be able to target players and have a really good chance to acquire the players we set out to get," Epstein said. "We're probably not quite at that time. That time is coming, so we can plan for it.

"We're getting a little creative with how to speed that up. One of the ways we've done that is by, as you know, last off-season we didn't quite spend everything we had and (we) hope that puts us in a better position this winter or next winter, depending on how things go, to make a big splash."