El Nino possible as Pacific Ocean seen warmer

An El Nino event that brings drought to Asia and heavier-than-usual rains to South America remains possible this year as temperatures in the Pacific Ocean may stay warmer-than-average, Australia's weather bureau said.

Central tropical Pacific surface temperatures could exceed El Nino thresholds by the year-end, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today. It maintained a watch status, indicating at least a 50 percent chance of an event.

El Ninos can roil agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought or too much rain. Palm oil, cocoa, coffee and sugar are most at risk, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has said. There is a 60 percent to 65 percent probability of the event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, says the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, which is also on El Nino watch.

"Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average," the bureau said. "A late season El Nino remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific."

El Ninos, caused by periodic warmings of the tropical Pacific, occur every two to seven years and are associated with warmer-than-average years. The last El Nino was from 2009 to 2010, and the Pacific has either been in its cooler state, called La Nina, or neutral since then.

To contact the reporter on this story: Phoebe Sedgman in Melbourne at psedgman2bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4bloomberg.net Ovais Subhani