Dann Gire predicts 'The Artist' will silence the Oscar competition

So it comes down to this:

The Academy Award for Best Picture will be a tooth-and-toenail struggle between Michel Hazanavicius' favored silent film "The Artist" and Martin Scorsese's masterpiece of 3-D "Hugo."

Best Actress will be a street fight between a trio of seasoned performers: Meryl Streep as "The Iron Lady," Viola Davis in "The Help" and Michelle Williams in "My Week With Marilyn."

The toughest contest to call will be Best Actor, because Oscar voters will be pulled between veteran Hollywood fixture George Clooney in "The Descendants" and charming French comic actor Jean Dujardin in "The Artist."

Actually, future tense verbs such as "will be" aren't really accurate. The Oscars voting deadline was Tuesday, so the winners have already been decreed at the ballot box. Now we just have to wait for the winners to be announced at the 84th annual Academy Awards at 7 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 26, on ABC.

After producers attempted to lure a "younger demographic" to last year's show by having James Franco and Anne Hathaway co-host an unnatural disaster, Sunday's show apparently returns to catering to the older crowd by inviting Billy Crystal to host for the ninth time.

Who will the winners be?

Here are my predictions, the results of years of tested experience and many hours of staring at Celestial Seasonings Gingerbread Spice tea leaves.

<b>Best Picture and Director: </B>At the time of the nominations announcements last month, I predicted that "Hugo" and Scorsese would be likely winners. Since then, the tide of voter sentiment has shifted to the simple charm and audacity of "The Artist," a movie that pays homage to the pure essence of silent movies. Thus, "The Artist" will defeat "Hugo" and director Hazanavicius will snatch the Oscar away from Scorsese.

True, "Hugo" also pays homage to the pure essence of silent movies, particularly those of French innovator Georges Melies (Ben Kingsley, not nominated), but let's face facts: Uggie the Jack Russell terrier in "The Artist" is a lot more lovable than the fearsome Doberman in "Hugo."

Does that make a difference? We'll see Sunday.

<b>Actor: </b>My heart says it must be Clooney, for his performance as a bad dad who sees the light before it's too late. His lead role in "The Descendants" represents his sincerest, most underplayed character (without relying on sentiment) so far. My brain tells me it must be Dujardin, because his character in "The Artist" represented a great challenge to communicate his feelings only through his face and gestures. Plus, the Screen Actors Guild gave him its 2011 Best Actor award.

Do I go with my heart or with my head? I'm going with my heart: Clooney.

<b>Actress:</b> I have a theory: Streep and Williams are both playing historical figures, and they will, in some weird way, cancel each other out. That leaves the magnificent Davis to clinch the statuette after years of not only never giving us a bad performance, but years of never giving us a mediocre performance, either. Plus, the Screen Actors Guild gave her its Best Actress prize, rightly honoring her role as a courageous maid in "The Help."

<b>Supporting Actor: </B>The winner should be Albert Brooks in "Drive," but he's not nominated. As much as I admired Max von Sydow's crusty old mute in the inferior "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," the winner will be Captain Von Trapp himself, Christopher Plummer, as an aging homosexual who comes out of the closet after years of being married in "Beginners." A solid merger of role and actor. And, yes, the Screen Actors Guild gave him its Best Supporting Actor award.

<b>Supporting Actress: </B>There is a case for predicting the wonderful Jessica Chastain for her role in "The Help." She appeared in five movies last year and did a stellar job in each. But I've got to go with her "Help" co-star Octavia Spencer, who performed a slam-dunk role as a maid who was heart-wrenching, funny, sassy and triumphant. Plus, the Screen Actors Guild gave her Best Supporting Actress, a strong indicator of how the Academy will vote.

<b>Cinematography:</b> Normally Columbia College grad Janusz Kaminski would be a lock for his splendid visuals in "War Horse," but the 2011 Oscar will go to Emmanuel Lubezki for his poetic contributions of light and shadows to Terrence Malick's artsy "The Tree of Life."

<b>Song: </B>Give it to Bret McKenzie's super funny "Man or Muppet." I'm guessing that the lesser "Real in Rio" nabbed a nomination through a technicality - Oscar rules state that if only one song qualifies for a nom (by earning at least an 8.5 score out of 10 from the song committee), the second-highest scoring song must also be nominated, even if it doesn't meet the minimum 8.5.

<b>Score:</b> I'm betting on Ludovic Bource's music to "The Artist," mostly because it's transcendent, effective movie music, and because this silent film turns the score into a storytelling character in its own right. There might be some blowback against "The Artist" because it uses several minutes of Bernard Herrmann's great "Vertigo" score near the end, but I predict it won't turn off voters.

<B>Other predictions:</b>

<b>Animated Film: </B>"Rango"

<b>Visual Effects: </B>"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"

<b>Editing: </B>"Hugo"

<b>Live-Action Short: </B>"Raju"

<b>Animated Short:</b> "La Luna"

<b>Documentary: </B>"Undefeated"

<b>Sound Mixing:</b> "War Horse"

<b>Sound Editing: </B>"War Horse"

<b>Costume: </B>"The Artist"

<b>Art Direction:</b> "Hugo"

<b>Foreign Language:</b> "A Separation" from Iran

<b>Adapted Screenplay: </B>"The Descendants"

<b>Original Screenplay:</b> "Midnight in Paris"