Don’t overreact to Japan disaster

I was asked, as a physicist: What do I think is the worst-case scenario about the Japanese nuclear reactors and the earthquake? My answer: That there will be a public backlash against nuclear power stations, out of ignorance or for political reasons, leading to no new ones and decommissioning existing ones as fast as possible, followed inevitably by burning more oil, gas, and coal.

This will accelerate global climate change and advance the time when fossil fuels become rare and very expensive. The way we live will certainly change dramatically over the next 50 years, and probably for the worse. The worst case? The end of civilization as we know it.

More than 10,000 people have been killed by the earthquake and tsunami, and not one by radiation. Explosions at reactors are bad news, but they are nothing like nuclear explosions (bombs). It is physically impossible for a reactor to explode like an atomic bomb. Ban the bomb, but not reactors. Scares about leaking radiation make headlines, but the levels are very unlikely to be both dangerously high and sudden (unless you work at the plant). The only nuclear reactor accident ever to cause serious sickness and deaths to the general public was Chernobyl 25 years ago in the Soviet Union, when even after the serious explosion, the local population was left for days to watch the dark cloud from their balconies. People are scared of nuclear radiation because they cannot see, feel or taste it; however, simple particle detectors can detect it.

I hope we learn lessons: Do not build nuclear reactors in earthquake-prone zones or near ocean coasts. Do not store waste near their reactors (as is done in Japan and the U.S.), but far away from cities (as the Chinese do). And educate the public about science, radiation physics and probability.

Michael Albrow

Naperville