Illini will sweat it out in NCAA selections
The NCAA Tournament committee members study so many numbers as they figure out the 68-team field, it’s a wonder their eyes don’t bleed.
In the end, they combine statistical measures with the “eye test” and head-to-head comparisons to determine the at-large qualifiers and their seeds.
That’s the scary part for Illinois as it awaits the Selection Sunday show at 5 p.m. on Channel 2.
If the committee utilized any single statistical ranking on its own, then the Illini (19-13) would be in the field.
They began Saturday at No. 46 in RPI. If the committee simply went down the RPI list to find its at-large teams, the Illini would be no worse than the next-to-last team in the field.
If the committee used only Pomeroy (No. 20 on Saturday) or Sagarin (No. 27), then Illinois would be in without a sweat.
But if the committee fixated on Illinois’ record against top 50 RPI teams (5-10 going into Saturday’s games), then Bruce Weber’s bunch could be on the outs.
And what if the committee throws all of these metrics into a stew — and then focuses on how the Illini lost 10 of their final 16 games?
No wonder Illinois will sweat until its name pops up on the TV screen.
CollegeRPI.com’s Jerry Palm and ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi believe the Illini are safely in the field as an 11 seed, but you never know.
“All you can do is be positive and hope for the best,” Weber said. “Obviously you’re watching scores and what else happens in some of the other tournaments.
“Obviously, if some team comes out of nowhere, you never know what spot’s going to be yours.”
There’s just one team playing Sunday that can come out of nowhere to swipe a bid.
Brian Gregory’s Dayton squad, the team that knocked Illinois out of the NIT quarterfinals last year, reached today’s Atlantic 10 final despite being the No. 9 seed.
If the Flyers beat Richmond, then an at-large team loses its spot.
In a similar vein, Penn State probably clinched an at-large berth with its Big Ten semifinal win over Michigan State on Saturday.