Census shows suburban growth, meaning smaller districts for some lawmakers
The suburbs, it seems, have bulked up just in time for the prize fight.
New census numbers released Tuesday show suburban Cook and the collar counties gaining thousands of new residents, as Chicago and downstate Illinois' populations shrunk.
That means the fight over which party controls things in Springfield and over Congressional seats just lost to freshmen Republicans will be waged on our turf — from Antioch to Elburn to Wheaton.
“The battle for control of the legislature is going to really be in the suburbs,” said University of Illinois Springfield political scientist Kent Redfield said.
Census data shows that while Chicago's population decreased by 6.9 percent over the last 10 years, suburban population in the collar counties boomed.
Next to Will County, whose population grew by 34.9 percent, Kane County saw the second biggest increase, up 27.5 percent. McHenry County's population grew by 18.7 percent, Lake County by 9.2. percent, and DuPage County by 1.4 percent. With much of its population coming from Chicago, overall Cook County population decreased by 3.4 percent.
Soon, the state's top political leaders will begin the process of redistricting — redrawing legislative and congressional political boundaries to account for population shifts as shown by the census.
More people in the suburbs could mean more representation in Springfield.
And in Congress, Illinois' loss of a seat could mean big shifts for the current delegation.
Drawing those political maps is one of the biggest tasks party leaders face every 10 years, and the boundaries could determine, to some extent, the party's level of success in the coming decade.
This time, Democrats control all levels of state government, so the power to draw the map is theirs.
What they'll do is anyone's guess.
But some observers say they might take aim at suburban Republican members of Congress.
The delegation has four local freshmen.
Freshmen members are typically among the most vulnerable in elections, and Democrats might try to change the borders in their districts to make it even tougher for the rookies — U.S. Reps. Randy Hultgren, Joe Walsh, Robert Dold and Adam Kinzinger — to keep seats in Washington.
“All of these are areas that were either held by Democrats recently or have a potential to be held by Democrats,” said Northern Illinois University political scientist Matt Streb.
In the battle to control Springfield, shifting populations could mean lots of boundary movement in legislative districts.
Districts that once encompassed large swathes of rural land, along with more urban areas, could shrink significantly because of the huge amount of suburban growth in the last ten years.
State Rep. Keith Farnham's predominately Kane County district, which encompasses Elgin, Carpentersville and East Dundee and portions of South Elgin and Barrington Hills, has seen a tremendous amount of growth in the last decade, due to a large influx of Hispanics.
There are now nearly 160,000 Hispanics living in the county, 65 percent more than 10 years ago.
“Someone told me my district may be smaller, but then again ... I'll work whatever it is,” Farnham said.
Rep. Kay Hatcher, a Yorkville Republican, also has a district that has grown significantly, due not least to Aurora's population growth by a whopping 38 percent to 197,899.
But with Democrats controlling the process, Hatcher might not know what changes could be coming to her district until months from now.
“The Republican legislators will be the last to know,” Hatcher said.
The power a party can muster through redistricting has its limits, however.
Though each side will have experts making predictions, there's no real way to know what the suburbs will look like eight years from now and how political tastes might change.
So a map meant to help Democrats might not have its full intended effect after a couple of elections.
And some areas are so inclined toward one party, that there's no way the other will be able to draw a supportive district.
No amount of fiddling with the boundaries will produce many Republican state senators from Chicago, for example.
“There's only so much you can do,” Redfield said.