Bowl preview: NU vs. Texas Tech
Northwestern (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)
When: 11 a.m. Saturday at Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas
TV: ESPNU
Net: ESPN3.com
Radio: WGN 720-AM, WNUR 89.3-FM
Series: First meeting
Coaches: Pat Fitzgerald (34-28, fifth year at NU); Tommy Tuberville (7-5 at Texas Tech; 117-65 overall)
NU players to watch (and not watch): Northwestern seeks its first bowl triumph in 62 years without its all-Big Ten quarterback and its top three rushers. The absence of QB Dan Persa (ruptured Achilles tendon), RB Mike Trumpy (wrist) and RB Arby Fields (transfer) leave the offense to redshirt freshman QB Evan Watkins. The Glenbard North product started NU's last two games and hit 26 of 49 passes for 302 yards, 4 INT and 1 TD this year. Junior RB Jacob Schmidt (161 yards, 4 TDs) returns after missing the last five games with a bad ankle. He'll rotate with freshman Adonis Smith and senior Stephen Simmons. All-Big Ten slot man Jeremy Ebert (59 catches, 818 yards, 9 TDs) must touch the ball early and often.
TT players to watch: Texas Tech ranks eighth nationally in passing yards per game thanks to senior QB Taylor Potts (326 of 495 for 3,357 yards, 31 TDs and 9 INT). The Red Raiders spread the field and throw horizontally more often than vertically as Potts gets the ball to seniors Lyle Leong (64 catches, 808 yards, 17 TDs) and Detron Lewis (79 catches, 803 yards, 6 TDs) and lets them work.
The skinny: Northwestern surrendered 118 points and 1,118 total yards in its final two regular-season games — the worst finish in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Wildcats say they lost track of their fundamentals and weren't at their healthiest. They spent much of their bowl work restoring the proper techniques, yet giving veterans enough rest to ensure a much better showing. It's the final game for four crucial defensive starters — OLB Quentin Davie, MLB Nate Williams, DT Corbin Bryant and CB Justan Vaughn — and they'll be stretched by Texas Tech's schemes that remind the Wildcats of the 2008 Alamo Bowl opponent Missouri.
At the same time, Northwestern can't afford anything close to the 10 turnovers it committed in the Illinois and Wisconsin games with freshmen QBs Evan Watkins and Kain Colter at the controls. Texas Tech ranked 116th out of 120 BCS teams in yards allowed (463.1 ypg), so there'll be room for plays to be made. The Red Raiders averaged just 2 sacks per game, so Watkins ought to have time to throw if he has honed the clock in the head as promised.
He said it: NU coach Pat Fitzgerald on Texas Tech defensive coordinator James Willis leaving the program abruptly a week ago: “Well, I think the advantage goes to them. The guy that we've scouted and broken down is no longer there. Schematically and personnel, I don't think they're going to change that much in a week, but Coach Tuberville's past is on defense. So I think who they'll be and what they do is similar to what they've been.”
Numbers to know: While Northwestern celebrates a third consecutive bowl berth for the first time, Texas Tech caps its season with a bowl for the 11th year in a row. More impressively, the Red Raiders are assured of their 18th straight winning season. The Wildcats never have enjoyed more than four in a row (1895-98, 1928-31), though they can tie that mark next year.
Sagarin says: Texas Tech by 5.5 points.