Illini like their blend, of experience, youth
It's easy to project greatness for Illinois this year. History suggests as much.
The last time the Illini welcomed back all five of their starters the program's only other time in the last 30 years that the top five scorers returned they rolled all the way to the 2005 NCAA title game.
That team for the ages opened the season ranked No. 6 in the country and spent four months at No. 1.
This year's squad opens the season Monday No. 13 in the Associated Press poll Illinois' highest ranking since the end of the 2005-06 season.
It's easy to project the Illini competing for the Big Ten title until the end, earning a high NCAA Tournament seed that gets them into the United Center subregional and barging into the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2005.
Alas, “project” is the key word.
In Illinois' first two opportunities to prove that its seniors are better, its sophomores are much-improved and its freshmen are everything their resumes say, Bruce Weber's bunch looked less than adequate as they struggled to defeat Div. II Lewis and Southern Indiana.
“Obviously we didn't play well in the exhibitions,” Weber said. “Is it a state of panic? No. Is it a state of disappointment? Yes.”
What about a state of denial?
“I'm not panicked. I'm not worried,” said senior forward Mike Davis, who averaged 13 points and 10.5 rebounds in the exhibitions. “I know we have the same guys (that) last year beat Michigan State, the same guys that took Ohio State to double-overtime and beat Wisconsin.
“We have the same guys on the same team who played the same minutes and some extra better players. So we'll be fine.”
Actually, Davis' attempts to reassure Illini Nation might have the opposite effect and set off alarms.
Just as it's easy to project greatness because the Illini welcome back 89 percent of their points, 87 percent of their rebounds, 85 percent of their assists and 85 percent of their minutes played, it's easy to project pitfalls because it's the same group that underachieved last year.
Remember, despite winning six games against NCAA Tournament qualifiers last year, these Illini missed the NCAA train for the second time in three seasons.
They lost an NIT quarterfinal to Dayton at home in a game that was all-too reminiscent of the team's first-round NCAA loss to Western Kentucky in 2009: Fall behind by a lot against a team seeded to lose. Just when it's mathematically impossible to win, dig deep for an amazing comeback that's not quite enough.
Come to think of it, that might be the story arc for Illinois' senior class: all-Big Ten point guard Demetri McCamey, potential all-Big Ten center Mike Tisdale, former second-team all-Big Ten forward Davis and glue guy Bill Cole.
They appear talented enough to achieve big things McCamey and Davis tested their NBA draft value last spring, while Tisdale spent parts of the last two summers playing with USA Basketball but they've played in just one NCAA Tournament game.
That's why the back half of Davis' quote might be the most important the part about “some extra better players.”
Illinois boasts its best freshman group since Deron Williams, Dee Brown and James Augustine showed up in the summer of 2002.
While athletic 7-footer Meyers Leonard and chiseled 6-4 guard Crandall Head certainly will have an impact in multiple games this year, swingman Jereme Richmond boasts the ability to lift the Illini to another level each night.
From the start, Richmond hasn't hesitated during practices to offer advice to teammates even the seniors when they miss an assignment or misread a situation.
Weber gushes over how Illinois' 10th McDonald's All-American owns an advanced understanding of concepts and how to manipulate the “gray areas” of basketball.
“Jereme does have a great feel for the game,” Weber said. “He knows a lot about basketball. I don't know where, how … he has great fundamentals. Natural fundamentals. I don't know why. Just some guys have it and some guys don't.
“Now, and this is from the guys, they don't mind whether it's from Demetri or him it's OK if you (critique). If you back it up.
“If you're saying, ‘You better close out or jump to the ball or be there,' you better do it, too. For Jereme, his next step will be when somebody corrects him. How does he deal with it?”
Similarly, as a collective, how will the Illini deal with their turnover-prone, weak-rebounding efforts in the exhibitions?
How will they respond to the first unexpected loss? How will they react when there's no more time to project greatness and only time to deliver it or move along?
Their answers will determine whether they reach Houston in April … or crash spectacularly well before the Final Four.