Can GOP keep control of Lake County board?

When Democrats captured four additional seats on the Lake County Board in 2008, bringing them to within two seats of seizing majority control for the first time, many Republicans commissioners were worried about what changes the 2010 election would bring.

Last week's election results didn't alter the GOP's 13-10 majority. All the incumbents — seven Republicans and one Democrat — won, and Waukegan Democrat Bill Durkin claimed an open seat previously held by Democrat Colin O'Rourke.

“We really thought we could hold them and we did it,” said Gurnee Republican Steve Carlson, who won re-election Tuesday.

But the Republicans aren't confident they've held the Democrats off for good. Some already are thinking about the 2012 election, which will put every board seat on the ballot because of planned decennial redistricting.

“I think that's more of a wild card than anything,” said Zion Republican Brent Paxton, who also won last week. “There's just so much up for grabs, and there's so much unknown.”

The Democrats have always been in the minority on the county board, but the disparity hasn't affected politics much. Votes rarely fall along party lines; the members more typically have split on local issues such as development, land conservation and spending.

After the 2006 election, the GOP held a 17-6 majority. That changed to 13-10 in 2008.

Democrat newcomers Pat Carey, Melinda Bush, Terry Wilke and Diane Hewitt all won previously Republican-held seats that year, riding a wave led by President Barack Obama.

Those victories prompted GOP fears of partisan politics. It also led some Republicans to think about whether they could hold the majority in 2010.

Those questions grew in 2009 after veteran Republicans Pam Newton and Michael Talbett resigned to take municipal jobs. Both seats were filled by appointment, and the appointees Aaron Lawlor and Craig Taylor were up for election this year and considered vulnerable because of their relative lack of board experience.

But the Republican incumbents, including Lawlor and Taylor, prevailed Tuesday.

Carlson, who soundly defeated Democrat David Weinstein, wasn't surprised the GOP was able to hold its slim majority.

“We approached things differently this time than last time,” he said. “We didn't take anything for granted.”

One strategy that worked for all the incumbents Democrat and Republican alike was to run positive, fact-based campaigns, Carlson said. The big lesson of the 2010 county campaign season, he said, was that “you don't have to lie to win.”

Carlson said he and other Republicans on the board are breathing a little easier now that the election is over. But some, like Paxton, are anxious about the future.

Based on population changes recorded in this year's census, county commissioners will draw new district boundaries next year. They also may choose to change the number of board members, something that was debated when the districts last were redrawn a decade ago.

The redistricting effort should begin in early 2011, County Administrator Barry Burton said. The map should be completed by the time candidates need to file campaign paperwork in fall 2011.

Between now and November 2012, some Republicans could decide to retire at the end of their terms, Paxton said. That would create open seats, and a Democratic challenger would have a better shot at beating a fellow newcomer than a veteran, he said.

“My guess is we may lose some seats to retirement,” said Paxton, who defeated Democrat Beverly Ann Mull to win re-election.

The mood of the nation may be a factor in 2012, too, Paxton said. Just as voter dissatisfaction with the government led to a Republican wave last week, Democrats could ride a similar crest in two years if people aren't happy with the GOP's efforts.

Carey, a Grayslake Democrat, knows a Democratic majority on the board would be historic, but she's not optimistic it'll happen in 2012.

She and the other Democrats who won in 2008 benefited from “a tremendous energy” generated by the Obama campaign, Carey said, and she doesn't necessarily expect a repeat performance in two years.

“Whether or not we'd ever duplicate that, I don't know,” Carey said.

Wilke, a Round Lake Beach Democrat, is pessimistic about the party's Lake County chances in 2012.

He thinks the Republicans will try to draw the board's internal boundaries in a way that benefits the GOP, a maneuver called gerrymandering.

“Redistricting (isn't) going to change anything,” Wilke said. “I don't think the opportunity has passed, but I don't think 2012 will be our year.”

Paxton, who was on the board during the last redistricting process in 2001, insisted county officials will try to create a fair map next year that doesn't deliberately favor members of either party. Using computerized mapping software, districts will be based on population figures and must strictly follow those guidelines, he said.

“Even if we wanted to gerrymander, we couldn't,” Paxton said. “And we'd be sued for it if we did.”

Republican board member Diana O'Kelly believes its too early to talk about the impact of redistricting on the 2012 election. With longtime board Chairwoman Suzi Schmidt leaving the board shortly for the state Senate, O'Kelly said officials are more focused on selecting the panel's next leader.

“We haven't seen the census,” O'Kelly said. “We haven't seen anything.”

Carey is optimistic the Republicans won't use their majority to unfairly put Democrats at a disadvantage when it comes to the new boundaries.

“I would expect it to be a fair process,” she said. “We work in such a nonpartisan manner except every two years (for elections). I don't see it.”