Senate race forces Obama to walk a fine line
President Barack Obama is in Chicago today to, among other things, bolster Alexi Giannoulias' U.S. Senate bid, but the president will likely be treading carefully between expressing support for and keeping some distance from the increasingly controversial campaign.
"With all the controversy with Giannoulias recently, it's a real fine line that the president has to walk," said Richard Krupa, a political science professor at Harper College. "You know, Democrats are so intent on keeping control of the majority in Congress. It could actually work to the president's disadvantage to be too closely associated with him. ... You have to be there but maintain your distance as well."
After a Thursday morning visit to Ford Motor Co.'s plant on the South Side of Chicago, Obama will head to a lunchtime fundraiser for Giannoulias, the Chicago Democrat vying for his old Senate seat.
The Palmer House Hilton event is expected to bring in approximately $1 million for the candidate.
Campaign spokeswoman Kathleen Strand said tickets cost between $1,000 and $2,400 apiece.
As questions arose about loans made by the Giannoulias family bank, Obama's administration had initially been cool to Giannoulias, but it has stepped up support recently, with endorsements by top White House officials and the late June fundraising visit of Vice President Joe Biden.
Giannoulias' race against Mark Kirk, a Highland Park Republican and 10th District congressman, is expected to be one of the closest - and most watched - in the nation.
The candidates have spent the summer slinging mud at one another, focusing as much on uncovering dirt about one another as the issues themselves.
Giannoulias' campaign has been marred by the collapse of his family's bank in April and its alleged ties to organized crime.
Kirk has faced heat of his own - with questions over an embellished military record.
Early poll numbers show Giannoulias, the Illinois state treasurer, has a marginal lead over Kirk. But second-quarter financial reports, released in early July, showed Giannoulias lagging millions behind Kirk in terms of fundraising dollars.
The president, set on keeping a Democratic majority in Congress, will be using his prestige to help Giannoulias catch up in campaign cash.
The visit is a strategic move on Obama's part, said Kent Redfield, a professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
"Certainly, anytime the president campaigns for someone, that is expending capital and putting his prestige on the line. You don't want to appear to be abandoning your party, and on the other hand, it doesn't do (Obama) any good to be championing lost causes," Redfield said. "But here the numbers are certainly competitive. ... It's not the sort of thing that has a great hook for the Kirk campaign. If the president weren't coming, that would help with the narrative from the Kirk camp that Giannoulias is radioactive."
David Plouffe, Obama's 2008 campaign manager and current midterm election adviser, noted during a news conference last week that Giannoulias, who has made a pledge not to take contributions from Washington lobbyists and corporations, "is clearly going to be outspent" by Kirk.
"What's most important is not the comparison, but do you have what we need? Trips like the president's will help," Plouffe said.
Plouffe told journalists that "the numbers suggest Giannoulias can win this race."
A major concern, Plouffe said, is high Republican enthusiasm at a time when Democratic enthusiasm is trailing.
"The question is how much you can grow it," he said.
Plouffe said Giannoulias campaign needs to keep a focus on having a strong grass-roots campaign and raising the cash to fuel that effort.
"If they can raise enough money to get to what they need to do in order to execute their campaign plan, they can get to their win number. This election's going to be won around the margins," he said.