Taking another shot at predicting our state champions

Will the third try at this be a charm or do more harm to the reputation of our annual attempt to predict this weekend's boys basketball state tournament in Peoria?

My first shot in continuing the tradition started by Bob Frisk wasn't too bad. Two years ago the record was 6-2.

Last year was similar to North Carolina's descent from NCAA champion to being relegated to the NIT. Both title-winners were wrong and a complete wipeout on the 3A field led to a 3-5 finish.

So, hopefully this time around will be better with the eight games in the Peoria Civic Center. As always, these are for comedic purposes only.

Class 3AMarshall (27-7) vs. Peoria Richwoods (29-2), 12:15 p.m. Friday: Neither team was considered a major threat to be here when the season started. One of them will be playing for a state title.Marshall won its third state crown just two years ago and will get its fourth trophy in five years. Second-year coach Henry Cotton's team started slowly but its only loss since early January was by a point to Morgan Park for the Chicago Public League title.The Commandos have athletic size led by 6-5 seniors Vince Garrett (16.6 ppg, 9 rpg) and Alphonso McKinnie (11 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and a solid lead guard in junior Keifer Sykes (9.7 ppg, 3.3 apg). They can attack offensively from all angles and bring pressure defensively with man-to-man or a variety of zones.Richwoods gets its first shot at a title since 2006 when it lost in overtime to Simeon and Derrick Rose. Ending defending 3A champion Champaign Centennial's 37-game winning streak 63-47 on Jan. 23 vaulted the Knights to a title threat.They're balanced and led by all-state guard Tylon Deal (12 ppg, 4 rpg). Mason Alwan (10.8) is a long-range threat and Tony Frazier has matured into a lockdown defender.The pick: This looks like a heck of a defensive battle. With the hometown crowd, Richwoods gets a 50-46 edge.Champaign Centennial (31-1) vs. Hillcrest (29-3), 2 p.m. Friday: Centennial is no surprise this time as it looks to defend its crown behind 6-3 senior Rayvonte Rice. The unanimous all-state pick and Mr. Basketball candidate averages 24.3 points and 6.1 rebounds and can shoot the 3-pointer (67). The Drake-bound Rice is backed by the 6-8 duo of junior Josh Piper (10.4 ppg, 6 rpg) and senior Jeff Johnson (10.7 ppg, 8 rpg).Hillcrest has been a perennial power in the South suburbs but will finally get its first state trophy. All-state guard Eric Gaines (14.6 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg) is a tough matchup at 6-5 and Julius Brown (12.8) can hit the 3.The pick: Centennial won their matchup 81-64 on Feb. 6 as Rice had 34 points. Rice has proved to be his best in big games and this is no different as the Chargers win 72-60.Third-place game, 12:15 p.m. Saturday: It's always a challenge to figure who will come ready to play after the disappointment of not reaching the title game.The pick: Marshall's depth stops Hillcrest 66-60.Championship, 2 p.m. Saturday: What more could the IHSA ask for to fill some seats. The hometown team trying to prove its earlier win was no fluke and get its first title against a great player and team trying to repeat history.The pick: Rice had 24 but didn't shoot well in the first meeting. He'll close out his career in style in a 60-55 victory, which makes it two straight weekends the home team has to settle for second best (Peoria Manual in 2A).Class 4ASimeon (23-9) vs. O'Fallon (30-2), 6:30 p.m. Friday: The first 4A semifinal has the perennial Chicago power with three titles against the relative newcomer from outside St. Louis that lost this same matchup for the 2007 AA title in its first state trip.This has been a challenging year for the Wolverines without anyone like Derrick Rose. They played a rough schedule and came into the tourney on a brutal 18-point loss to DeLaSalle in the City-Suburban Showdown.But they've put it together at the right time and handed host Lyons just its second loss, 65-35 in the sectional semis. Brandon Spearman, a 6-3 senior who averages 14.7 points and 8 rebounds and is headed to Dayton, rescued them with a 3 at the regulation buzzer and more heroics at the end of overtime in a double-OT supersectional win over Benet.Versatile 6-6 freshman Jabari Parker, the son of former NBA player Sonny Parker, averages 9.3 points and is a future star. No one else averages more than 6 points.O'Fallon is a bit of an unknown since its 53-50 overtime win in the supersectional over Joliet was its only game against a Chicago-area team. Six-4 junior all-state guard Roosevelt Jones (19.1 ppg, 12 rpg, 4 apg) makes only 53 percent of his free throws, which could be an issue.Juniors Josh Buie and Charles Joy have also been big contributors.The pick: There is a natural tendency for those in the Chicago area to dismiss teams from southern Illinois. O'Fallon is clearly worthy of being here.But there's something about everything Simeon has been through and how the Wolverines have been prepared by coach Robert Smith. The Wolverines get another title shot 58-50.Waukegan (26-5) vs. Whitney Young (22-6), 8:15 p.m. Friday: Fans were pointing toward the Feb. 20 rematch in the City-Suburban Showdown of Young's 69-66 win over Waukegan for last year's title.So was Waukegan, as it used an impressive second half for a 59-42 victory that sent Young to the postseason on a three-game slide.A month later they meet again. Everything Waukegan has done, including a tougher schedule, has been driven toward giving the school and Lake County its first boys basketball champion.Leading the way is 6-7 Mr. Basketball candidate Jereme Richmond (21 ppg, 11 rpg), who captivates with his talent and aggravates with some of his maturity issues on and off the court. That will be Illinois coach Bruce Weber's challenge next season.But it's not all Richmond as the Bulldogs have showed in rolling to their 5 postseason wins. Senior swingman Quan Conner (14 ppg, 5 rpg, 6 apg) has 54 3s and guard Aaron Johnson (12.8 ppg) is dangerous.Point guard Mike Springs (9.2 ppg, 4.6 apg) was academically ineligible for the Young game last month and his sophomore cousin Mike Springs (9.6 ppg) plays bigger than 6-2. They're not deep but it doesn't stop them from parlaying intense, trapping defense into sudden and devastating runs.Young got a big dose of that in the second half in February but has two Division I talents in Oregon State-bound point guard Ahmad Starks (13.4 ppg, 6 apg) and Purdue recruit Anthony Johnson (16 ppg, 8 rpg). Junior Sam Thompson (10 ppg) didn't play in the first meeting because of injury and 6-10 freshman Thomas Hamilton (9 ppg, 8 rpg) is a future big-time prospect.The pick: Will the fact Waukegan won a month ago and hasn't been severely tested in the postseason be an issue? No, as it gets some more revenge 60-48.Third-place game, 6:30 p.m. Saturday: After winning a state title last year and playing a tough rematch with Waukegan, it will be tough for Young to get recharged for this one. Jones and O'Fallon will look to make a statement for next year 70-64.Championship, 8:15 p.m. Saturday: The last two years I've gone with history being made in Lake County. I'll give it a third try as Richmond caps his wild high school career with a title parade in Waukegan and a 74-61 win over Simeon.True13282000Junior guard Tywon Pinkney defends against Benet's David Sobolewski during Simeon's double-overtime supersectional victory on Tuesday at Hinsdale Central.Paul Michna | Staff PhotographerTrue