Apple's iPad debut unlikely to outdo iPhone

The odds are stacked against Apple Inc.'s new iPad reaching sales of 1 million as quickly as the iPhone, an online bookmaker said.

The iPhone, which went on sale in June 2007, took 74 days to get to the 1 million mark. The iPad, a tablet device that debuts on April 3, has a 72 percent probability of taking longer than that, according to YouWager.com, which began taking bets on the topic this week.

"No matter what they put out on the market, there's going to be large sales, but with this particular product, we don't think it's as practical as the iPhone," said Brian Sanz, who works on wagering, auditing and research development for San Jose, Costa Rica-based YouWager.com.

Apple started taking preorders for the iPad last week, promoting it as a "magical" product that combines elements of smartphones and notebook computers. The device, which starts at $499, has a 9.7-inch touch screen and can serve up Web pages, e-mail, music, videos, electronic books and iPhone applications.

Paddy Power Plc, Ireland's biggest bookmaker, has open betting with 3-to-1 odds that iPad sales will surge past 6 million in 2010. On the other end of the spectrum, the firm has 8-to-1 odds that fewer than 1 million units will sell.

Apple has received hundreds of thousands of iPad preorders, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter. Natalie Kerris, a spokeswoman for Cupertino, California-based Apple, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment after business hours.

Wait and See"Tablets are really emerging devices," said Angela McIntyre, a San Jose, California-based research director with Gartner Inc. She expects 4.2 million iPads to be sold in its first year. "We'll have to see over time if consumers adopt them, if they find it's fulfilling a need that's not readily met by a smartphone or mini-notebook."Apple fell $1.41 to $223.24 at 9:51 a.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had advanced 6.6 percent this year before today.Selling a million units in 74 days has emerged as an industry benchmark for consumer technology.Flurry Inc., a company that tracks smartphone use, estimated this week that Google Inc.'s Nexus One has sold about 135,000 units in its first 74 days. Like the iPhone, Motorola Inc.'s Droid phone managed to hit the 1 million mark in that amount of time, according to Flurry.Apple went on to sell more than 42 million iPhones.