Lee's resurgence has Cubs expecting more of the same

Former Cubs first baseman Mark Grace used to joke that his replacement was always waiting in the wings, whether it be Doug Jennings or Brant Brown or Hee Seop Choi.

Grace outlasted just about everybody. Just as they were with Grace, reports of Derrek Lee's demise were greatly exaggerated.

That included last year, when some fans were calling on manager Lou Piniella to replace Lee at first with Micah Hoffpauir.

All Lee did was shake off a horrid April to post his biggest offensive year since 2005.

Lee batted .306 with an on-base percentage of .393 and a slugging percentage of .579 to go along with 35 homers and 111 RBI.

His home run total jumped from 20 in 2008. The OBP rose from .361 the year before, and the slugging percentage was way up from the .462 Lee put up in 2008.

Lee enters the final year of his contract with the Cubs, and he still looks to be their best bet at the position long term if the two sides can agree on an extension, something Lee said this spring he isn't worried about.

Let's take a look at some issues and stats for Lee:

The resurgence: Lee hit more flyballs in 2009 than he did in 2008. His flyball percentage rose from 33.7 in 2008 to 45.7 last year.

The groundballs dropped from 44.9 percent to 35.1 percent. Lo and behold, Lee's double-play grounders also fell, from 27 in 2008 to just 12 last year.

Aside from a few neck problems, Lee appeared healthy last year, with the nagging questions about the effects of a broken wrist suffered in 2006 all but gone.

Whether the wrist had anything to do with the power surge is open to question, but Lee's home-run-to-flyball rate rose from 11.7 percent in '08 to 17.9 percent last year.

Tough position: A couple years ago, fans lamented that Lee was at the bottom of the NL Central in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages) among first basemen. Turns out, Lee was fourth in the entire NL in that department last year. Ahead of him were NL Central first basemen Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto.

First basemen, in fact, represented the NL pretty well on the OPS leader board. San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez ranked fifth, and the Phillies' Ryan Howard was ninth.

Is it sustainable? Bill James projects Lee for a hitting line of .291/.378/.516 for an OPS of .894 with 30 home runs and 98 RBI. Among the projections, this one is among the most generous.

Lee turns 35 in September, and there's no reason to believe he's done by any stretch.

"Essentially, if Lee's improvement last season was due to his wrists healing up and he can sustain that improved contact ability and doesn't suffer a major age-related decline in that or any other skill, he could very well put up numbers close to last season's (there's even a chance he could hit better than last year, although I wouldn't call it likely by any stretch)," said Colin Wyers, an author at Baseball Prospectus, via an e-mail exchange.

"But that's a lot of ifs. Lee doesn't have to put up those big power numbers to be valuable to the Cubs, of course - he can hit for average and has a good eye at the plate, which means he gets on base a lot and can help the Cubs offense in that way. But if you're counting on Lee to put up numbers like he did in '09, rather than like '07-'08, to carry the Cubs on offense, there's a problem."

<p class="factboxheadblack">NL's best</p>

<p class="News">Where we rank the top first basemen: </p>

<p class="News">1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals</p>

<p class="News">2. Prince Fielder, Brewers</p>

<p class="News">3. Derrek Lee, Cubs</p>

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<h1>More season previews</h1>

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<h2>Cubs</h2>

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<li><a href="/story/?id=364640&src=152">Plenty of worries for Cubs over their bullpen depth<span class="date">[3/9/10]</span></a></li>

<li><a href="/story/?id=364457&src=152">With rotation, Cubs deal with fear of the unknown<span class="date">[3/8/10]</span></a></li>

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<h2>White Sox</h2>

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<li><a href="/story/?id=365010&src=162">Captain Konerko knows clock is ticking with Sox<span class="date">[03/10/10]</span></a></li>

<li><a href="/story/?id=364633&src=162">5 spots set, but bullpen remains an issue for Sox <span class="date">[03/09/10]</span></a></li>

<li><a href="/story/?id=364463&src=162">For starters, Sox expect rotation to be one of baseball's best <span class="date">[03/08/10]</span></a></li>

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