Gire's Oscar picks: Bigelow's 'Hurt Locker' should have best pic locked

Director Kathryn Bigelow and her movie "The Hurt Locker" will win big Sunday night at the 82nd Annual Academy Awards program.

Why?

Because the 5,777 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences are nothing if not super image-conscious.

I predict that they will not hesitate to show how much they embrace equality and diversity by awarding a woman the best director Oscar for the first time in the organization's long and chauvinistic history.

Plus, Bigelow, only the fourth woman ever to nab an Oscar nomination for best director, has won the prestigious Directors Guild of America award. Since 1948, the DGA winner has failed to get the Oscar only a scant six times.

Her movie "The Hurt Locker" will win best picture, too, for several reasons:

1. Because it's already won an avalanche of top movie prizes from critics groups (Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, National Society, to name a few), and from the Producers Guild of America (out of the last 20 years, the PG winner has won the Oscar 13 times), and from the American Cinema Editors, American Society of Cinematographers and the Art Directors Guild.

2. It's not just a "war movie." Unlike other war films set in Iraq or Afghanistan that tanked with critics and the public, "The Hurt Locker" is a modernized cowboy movie disguised in army garb, shot like an action film, but edited like a horror movie. (Bigelow and her editors agreed to cut "Locker" in a horror film style, filled with suspense and an unseen malevolent force.)

3. "Avatar," directed by Bigelow's ex-husband James Cameron, is the only other serious best film contender.

But history is against a science-fiction fantasy winning the big enchilada ("Return of the King" was the rare exception). Plus "Avatar" suffers from a weak screenplay, and is a bluntly anti-military movie during a time when it might not be politically correct for Academy voters to tout the film as Hollywood's best.

The only major group to name "Avatar" best dramatic picture was the Golden Globes. But who votes for the Globes? Reporters for the Foreign Press Association, which requires no critical, production or technical qualifications to vote.

What impact did bumping up the best picture nominees to 10 have on the winning movie this year?

Search me. Yes, the bump enabled five more movies to be recognized as Oscar contenders. Good for them. That's about it. Whether the category offered 10 or five nominees, or used weighted votes or straight votes, I don't think the winner would come out differently in the end.

My vote's on "The Hurt Locker."

So, here are my other predictions for what will win Sunday night when the Academy Awards are broadcast at 7 p.m. on WLS-TV Channel 7.

Actress: Sandra Bullock as the steel magnolia star of "The Blind Side."

Was hers the best performance by an actress in 2009?

No way.

What we have here is a repeat of the John Wayne phenomenon from 1970's Oscar program. Voters showed the Duke the love the moment he stopped playing one of his cookie-cutter characters and created something fresh, like Rooster Cogburn in "True Grit."

Bullock finally stopped playing one of her cookie-cutter romantic comedy characters (cue the comical snort!) to play a gritty Southern mom with more spunk and fire than the men around her.

Voters love that, and they will honor Bullock over the worthy Meryl Streep as Julia Child the same way voters honored the Duke over Richard Burton's King Henry VIII in "Anne of a Thousand Days."

Actor: Hard to believe that five-time nominee Jeff Bridges has never won the golden statuette.

That will be remedied Sunday when the son of the legendary Lloyd Bridges gets honored for his portrait of a can't-miss Academy favorite, the down-on-his-luck boozer country-western performer on a comeback trail in "Crazy Heart."

It's a magnificently nuanced performance that's also been recognized by critics groups and, most important, by the Screen Actors Guild, many of whom are Academy voters.

Supporting Actress: All five nominees turned in stellar work. I'm particularly partial to Anna Kendrick's perfectly executed naive corporate superstar in "Up in the Air."

But the deserving winner, hands-down, will be Mo'Nique as the bleep-word-cussing, television-set-throwing, baby-granddaughter-dropping, welfare-money-sucking mama in the searing drama "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire."

Imagine Cruella DeVil crossed with Hannibal Lecter. Yes, her performance is that intense and unforgettable, only real.

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz will dance away with the Oscar for his role as the insane, unpredictable, whimsically violent Nazi officer in Quentin Tarantino's "Inglourious Basterds."

Waltz has been an award vacuum cleaner, sucking up every trophy and prize available to screen actors.

Why should he win? Ask anyone who's seen the movie. He is the movie, and that's saying something in a Tarantino film.

Animated Feature: "Up."

Duh. It's the only animated feature nominated for best picture, too. Do the math.

Song: "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart" just because Jeff Bridges warbles it, and because voters are tired of giving this prize to whatever animated movie Disney pumps out in a given year.

Foreign Film: Germany's "The White Ribbon" by Michael Haneke. It's a black-and-white experience that refuses to go away after you leave the theater.

Editing: "The Hurt Locker"

Score: "Up." But "The Hurt Locker" can't be counted out.

Art Direction: "Avatar."

Cinematography: "The Hurt Locker"

Costume Design: "Nine"

Documentary: "The Cove"

Sound Editing: "Avatar"

Sound Mixing: "Avatar"

Visual Effects: "Avatar"

Adapted Screenplay: "Up in the Air"

Original Screenplay: "The Hurt Locker"

Makeup: "Star Trek"

"The 82nd Annual Academy Awards"bull; Airs 7 p.m. Sunday, March 7, on ABCbull; Red carpet coverage starts at 5 p.m. on both E! and TV Guide NetworkFalse20001333Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side" False <div class="infoBox"><h1>More Coverage</h1><div class="infoBoxContent"><div class="infoArea"><h2>Stories</h2><ul class="links"><li><a href="/story/?id=355872">'Avatar,' 'The Hurt Locker' lead Oscar nominations <span class="date">[02/02/10]</span></a></li><li><a href="/story/?id=355873">List of 82nd annual Academy Award nominations <span class="date">[02/02/10]</span></a></li></ul></div></div></div>