Cubs not concerned with negative predictions

The predictions, projections and prognostications don't portend well for the Cubs, if you believe everything analysts have written this winter.

That seems OK with general manager Jim Hendry with his team getting set to prove its critics wrong on the baseball field as spring training opens.

"That's fine," said Hendry, noting that the Cubs were favorites a year ago before they missed the playoffs. "I never went overboard in thinking that. So many times, clubs that weren't predicted to win end up in the postseason. There's always a few that were predicted to (win) that weren't.

"So many things can happen along the way. It's such a long, grinding year. So much of it's based on health, a little momentum. Maybe add to the club in the middle of the year.

"Things can change drastically. I feel good. I feel like our guys are in a good place. I think they've got their heads in the right place, and I think they'll show that right away."

Pitchers and catchers report Wednesday and work out formally for the first time Thursday in Mesa, Ariz. Position players arrive Feb. 22 and start workouts the next day.

Here are 10 key issues for 2010 a month-and-a-half from Opening Day in Atlanta:

Pleading the fifth: And the fourth, too. Truth be told, the Cubs have three "sure things" as starting pitchers, and one of them is Randy Wells, who is coming off his rookie season, albeit an impressive one.

Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster are 1-2, with lefty Ted Lilly recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder.

After Wells, it's a free-for-all involving lefties Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny and right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Carlos Silva.

The Cubs may have to hold their breath until Lilly is ready, sometime in mid- to late-April or the first of May.

Which Soto is it? Is catcher Geovany Soto the Rookie of the Year from 2008 or the guy who suffered through a lost season in '09? The Cubs need him to be the former.

Soto is about 40 pounds lighter than last year, and the Cubs need him to maintain that self-discipline and resemble the guy who hit 23 homers and knocked in 86 runs in '08.

Be Sori, not sorry: Hendry says left fielder Alfonso Soriano is recovering well from September knee surgery and is excited to have new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo aboard.

They worked well together at Texas in 2004-05. Soriano will bat sixth from the get-go, and the Cubs feel that the power, if not the speed, will return.

Second to none: The Cubs passed up several free agents for second base to stick with Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker.

Fontenot, who bats left-handed, saw his on-base percentage drop from .395 in 2008 to a paltry .301 last year. If Fontenot rebounds, they can use Baker as the super-utility player, giving him time at second, third and in the outfield.

Baker was impressive after his trade from Colorado last July. Can he do it every day? If neither hits, it spells trouble.

Keep him healthy: Aramis Ramirez is their most potent offensive force when he's healthy. They need to keep him that way.

A dislocated left shoulder kept him out of the lineup from early May through early July last year, and his absence hurt the Cubs badly. Ramirez did not have surgery, opting for off-season rehab.

"Rami's good, 100 percent," Hendry said. "Mark (trainer O'Neal) obviously, talks to him on a regular basis, and there weren't any issues."

Closing time: Carlos Marmol knows he's the closer now. Marmol lost out to Kerry Wood in 2008 and to Kevin Gregg last year in spring training.

Marmol was visibly upset about it last spring, but he eventually took the job from Gregg and went 11-for-11 in save chances from the middle of August on.

He gave up just 43 hits in 74 innings last year, but he walked 65 and hit 12. His WHIP (walks plus hits per 1 inning pitched) will need to be closer to his 2008 number of 0.93 and not last year's 1. 46.

All's Wells: Right-hander Randy Wells doesn't believe in the sophomore jinx. As the No. 3 starter, they need him to equal or better last year's record of 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA.

Simply riotous: Shortstop Ryan Theriot will find out his salary fate at an arbitration hearing later this week. He could find out his positional fate later this year, depending on how phenom Starlin Castro performs.

Castro, who doesn't turn 20 until next month, tore it up in the minor leagues and in the Arizona Fall League in 2009. The Cubs won't rush him, but he could push Theriot to second base later this season.

Ace to Z: Nominal ace Zambrano won only 9 games last season, but he pitched in some tough luck, and his ERA was a respectable 3.77.

He showed up at the Cubs convention slim and trim last month, and he headed to Arizona early for what could be a defining year for him. The things to watch in spring training are his command and mechanics.

Lilly in the field: Manager Lou Piniella has cited May 1 for Lilly's return from arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder.

That pronouncement, like others from Piniella, left Hendry scratching his head. Hendry is not setting limits or timetables for Lilly, who is in the last year of his contract and will want to return sooner rather than later.

<p class="factboxtext12col"><b>Cubs' tentative opening-day lineup</b></p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Ryan Theriot, SS</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Kosuke Fukudome, RF</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Derrek Lee, 1B</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Aramis Ramirez, 3B</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Marlon Byrd, CF</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Alfonso Soriano, LF</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Mike Fontenot, 2B</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Geovany Soto, C</p>

<p class="factboxtext12col">Carlos Zambrano, P</p>