Is Illinois next? GOP suddenly enthused after Mass. victory

SPRINGFIELD - Mark Livesay's sick of the political status quo.

So after Tuesday's stunning election results on the East Coast, he put up a "Thank you, Massachusetts" sign outside his Arlington Heights home remodeling business.

"You get to the point where you just, you get tired of government being involved in everything in your life," Livesay said Wednesday. "You get frustrated and fed up with it. That's what you saw in Massachusetts. That speaks volumes about what's going on."

Livesay's political aggravation is exactly the sentiment Illinois Republicans hope they too can capitalize on as they seek to return to power and break a nearly decade-long run of Democratic domination.

Across the state, GOP candidates spent the day touting Massachusetts' Republican Scott Brown's win over state Attorney General Martha Coakley to claim liberal-icon Ted Kennedy's former U.S. Senate seat. In e-mails and news conferences, Republicans predicted Illinois was next.

"The election of Scott Brown is music to the ears of Republicans across the country and here in Illinois," said state Sen. Kirk Dillard, a Hinsdale Republican running for governor.

In a conference call with reporters, Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady expressed optimism that President Obama's former U.S. Senate seat here would fall next. Brady described Illinois U.S. Senate hopeful Mark Kirk and Brown as "exactly the kind of Republicans who can win in a blue state."

But the General Election remains a long, 10 months off. Mark Kirk still faces primary challengers next month in the Senate race. And recent political changes in Illinois thought to be sea change moments have, at times, been isolated ripples.

For instance, when Democrat Bill Foster stunned the political world in March 2008, by winning the Congressional seat previously held by Republican U.S. House Speaker Denny Hastert, many political observers envisioned a Democratic wave would soon wash away suburban Republicans Peter Roskam, Judy Biggert and Kirk. Instead, all three won that fall.

Chicago-based political consultant Kitty Kurth said Brady's using the right talking points after the Republicans victory in New England, but political reality tells her "don't count your chickens before they're hatched."

Kurth, active in Democratic campaigns this election season, said things can change over night in politics, but one thing is certain: People remain hungry for change.

DePaul University Political Science Professor Michael L. Mezey said it appears the public is lumping together unpopular federal bank bailouts and stimulus spending in a way that should give incumbent Democrats pause.

"So what you're really seeing is voter discontent," Mezey said

However, the spokesman for Illinois Democratic Party Chairman Michael Madigan downplayed efforts to link Tuesday's U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts to the political climate and candidates here.

"And I would hope the media would pay a little more attention to that - to the actual campaigning that's going on," said Steve Brown, Madigan's spokesman.

But the Republican win in Massachusetts clearly caught the attention of some Illinois Democrats. In essentially a political call to arms, Alexi Giannoulias' U.S. Senate campaign sent out an e-mail Wednesday asking volunteers to assist in the wake of these events. Giannoulias, the state treasurer, is one of the Democrats seeking to keep Obama's former Senate seat in Democratic hands.

Meanwhile, Illinois House Republican leader Tom Cross of Oswego said Tuesday's results show the problems Democrats face and it's up to Republicans to capitalize.

"I think that the potential is there," Cross said, though quickly adding, "10 months is a lifetime in politics."

Mezey, the DePaul political scientist, said Illinois' early primary also could reduce the significance.

"By the time we roll into the November campaigns, no one is really going to remember much about the primary campaign," Mezey said.

Even Livesay, the suburban business owner so enthused by the political changing of the guard in Massachusetts, isn't so sure Illinois Republicans are on the cusp of victory, blaming a political system he sees as dominated by Chicago Democrats.

Still, he considers the Massachusetts outcome a small step in the right direction.

"I just think it's kind of a rebuking of everything that's been going on up to this point," he said.

Daily Herald staff writer Chase Castle contributed to this report.