Christmas job wish? Holiday hiring may be light

The recession may be over, as economists report, but that doesn't mean retailers are rushing to hang "help wanted" signs in the windows for the upcoming holiday shopping season.

With the holidays right around the corner, late September and October are traditionally heavy hiring months as retailers take on part-time and temporary full-time help to prepare for the busiest time of the year.

However, much like last year, job seekers this season are expected to have a tough time finding work, as retailers and restaurants hold the reins on seasonal help, according to a recently released report.

According to a holiday hiring forecast, seasonal hiring may improve slightly over last year, but only because 2008 saw the lowest seasonal employment growth in nearly 20 years.

Retailers are expected to be cautious.

"With millions of Americans out of work and many more simply cutting back on all discretionary spending, few retailers will take the risk of eating into slim profits with extra workers," said John A. Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the outplacement consultancy that conducted the report.

Retail analysts agree that there will be limited jobs out there as consumer spending is not expected to pick up to make the holidays bright.

"I see the fourth quarter of 2009 worse than the fourth quarter of 2008. And 2008 was lousy," said John Melaniphy, founder of Chicago-based Melaniphy & Associates.

"I don't see many retailers hiring for the holiday season. If you look around at retail sales, everyone is cutting back," he said.

Last year, retail employment grew by just 384,300 from October through December, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was nearly 50 percent fewer than in 2007, when retailers added 720,800 workers during the holiday months.

The 384,300 seasonal workers hired in 2008 represent the lowest holiday hiring since 1989, when retailers added just 380,500 workers, according to the report.

While experts say the recession may be over, shoppers and retailers are nervous and will hold back.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession was "very likely over," at least from a "technical perspective." But the economy is going to feel "very weak" for some time, he added. In the past, consumer spending, which typically accounts for 70 percent of the economy, has helped America pull out of a recession.

There are signs of a rebound in the manufacturing and housing markets, but the unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 9.7 percent in August - a number retailers do not welcome.

The retailers most likely to hire help for the holidays will be the large discounters, such as Target and Walmart, which will be heavily favored by cost-conscious consumers during the holidays.

In addition to sales clerk positions, the discount stores will also need extra workers in their shipping facilities and overnight stocking positions.

There will be other opportunities outside of retail in areas such as catering and shipping, including UPS and FedEx, Challenger said.

Now is the time to begin the seasonal job hunt.

Many retailers begin interviewing right after the back-to-school shopping season, said Woodfield General Manager Marc Strich.

"Most of the peak hiring is done by October," he added.

Strich is feeling more optimistic about the upcoming hiring season as he has seen many "help wanted" signs going up at the Schaumburg mall.

But many retailers are taking a wait-and-see approach, which means that job seekers may be placed on standby. The retailers are doing interviews now and will prepare a list of hirable candidates that they can call only when it becomes obvious that more manpower will be needed, Challenger said.

"Temporary workers must be prepared to be flexible," he added.

The retailers have the ability to be flexible in cutting and adding hours when they need to, agreed George Rosenbaum, co-founder and retail analyst with Chicago-based Leo Shapiro & Associates.

Rosenbaum also agrees that we can expect a dismal holiday shopping season when it comes to spending, but believes seasonal hiring may be slightly up because the retailers have been forced to cut staff throughout the year to trim budgets.

"It should be much easier getting a part-time job in retail than a full-time job," he added.

Overall, retail analysts agree that the season most likely won't be any better than last year.

"It's going to ba a very frugal holiday season," Melaniphy said.