Fed says recession is over; survey says. . .

The Fed has pretty much said the recession is over. But a small group of suburban business owners - readers of my Business Owners' Blog newsletter who responded last week to an "Is It Over?" BOB readers economic survey - aren't quite so sure.

In round numbers, only 20 percent checked "We've started to come back" when asked whether the recession was over, based on what's happening at their own businesses. The other 80 percent were split between "Too soon to tell" and "Not over yet, but I think we can see the end."

When asked to look ahead and rate the business outlook for the rest of this year and for 2010 on a one to five scale, with one being mostly bad and five mostly positive, our peers gave a 2.5 rating to the outlook for the remainder of '09 and a 3.5 to next year.

Dean Holland, president of Holland & Co., a Naperville CPA firm, was one who voiced concern about a double-dip recession. "Let's see," he says, "if all those who bought autos via the Clunkers program default on their loans."

There's nothing scientific about the survey, and you may or may not agree with its results. Sometimes, however, it's interesting to know what other business owners think.

When asked how aggressive they planned to be as they geared their business back up, most were pretty cautious. Only 30 percent marked "Aggressive. We want to grab share from others who will be slow to return to normal." Still, 27 percent reported that they made acquisitions during the past year.

A no-names-please partner in a large suburban insurance agency tells of "two strategic acquisitions," and Mike Kukovec, a green-leaning engineer and head of E3 Design Solutions, Inc., Hampshire, took the opportunity to start out on his own.

Even more interesting are some of the other steps business owners took. Larry Wagener, for example, "Kept major suppliers aware of our situation so they did not panic about our ability to survive." Wagener is president of Entrees to Excellence, a gourmet food gift company in Shorewood.

The head of a catalog direct marketer who asked to remain anonymous "Shed unprofitable products and suppliers, as well as operations that weren't absolutely necessary. We intensified our contact with good customers and are targeting only best-in-class prospects."

His business is "conserving cash to create a recovery war chest."

At Mother Network Guardians, Itasca, COO Dave Davenport says, "We (changed) our sales approach and sold harder. We never stopped trying to grow."

For Todd Busteed, owner of GAP Digital, a Wheaton recording studio, the recession has meant that "We ran the table on cost cutting and restructured all debit. We're running a much tighter ship" and, he promises, "will continue to do so no matter what the economy does."

• Questions, comments to Jim Kendall, JKendall@121MarketingResources.com.

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