Hoping for economic sigh of relief

Dare we at last breathe a long-yearned-for sigh of relief? Now, as we pass the one-year mark since the largest bankruptcy to hit the economy in U.S. history?

If only it were so.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated Tuesday a mantra he has been stating with increasing confidence over the past month - the recession is over.

But what does that really mean for most of us? Bernanke himself, and the growing body of economists who agree with him, all stress that they are "cautiously" optimistic that the economy's health is improving. The emphasis, we hasten to agree, is on caution.

Much as we'd all like to strike up the strains of "Happy Days Are Here Again," we know only too well that the recovery we are experiencing - if indeed a recovery it is - is a fragile thing. And at that, its effects won't be generally apparent for many months, if not even years.

With nearly 7 million jobs already shed from the nation's economy and more predicted, many Americans - and countless suburbanites among them - are still in for a rough economic ride. Indeed, with tens of thousands remaining to be added to the unemployment rolls before joblessness tops out at more than 10 percent, by most predictions, we will hardly be surprised to hear a persistent grumbling between the headlines.

"Recovery?" thousands will surely be saying. "What recovery?"

Bernanke's remarks came on a day when the nation saw its brightest retail sales jump in three years. Again, evidence that things may be starting to turn around.

But there's also reason to be encouraged by the expected slow pace of the turnaround. The drags on economic growth, the experts say, will be tighter credit, increased household savings and the efforts of workers and families to shed their debt burdens.

Those three issues, of course, were at the heart of what got us into this mess in the first place. Credit was too easy to get, we spent far more money than we were making and we saved far too little for the rainy day that has turned into a yearslong torrent.

With this backdrop, it's worthwhile to reflect on economic reforms that Congress is sure to begin considering. Bernanke says he feels "quite confident that a comprehensive reform will be forthcoming." We agree with him and President Obama, who spoke on the issue both Monday and Tuesday of this week, that it's long past time we began to put reforms in place to ensure the disasters of the past several years cannot be repeated.

We're not as confident, however, that we've yet heard the panacea that will both halt the immediate crisis and restore the nation's economic health. On that point, we urge the same response we have for the growing upbeat economic predictions - caution.

Yes, we're all longing to enjoy that much-delayed sigh of relief, but we'd best be aware that it will not be coming either soon or easily.