Burris decision raises questions of politics and race moving forward

SPRINGFIELD - With Roland Burris exiting the U.S. Senate picture, the resulting question involves the reality of race and its influence among Chicago's often-crucial black voters in statewide races.

This seat in particular has had a racial quotient attached to it. It's the seat that Carol Moseley Braun won in 1992 to become the first black woman elected to the U.S. Senate. She was later defeated in a re-election bid by Inverness Republican Peter Fitzgerald.

But when Fitzgerald chose not to seek re-election, it was Barack Obama who emerged as the next U.S. senator, and upon his ascension to the White House, whether or not his replacement should be black has been a controversial question, especially since Obama himself played down race in his campaigns.

"The core of the Democratic vote in Illinois in the primary and general is Chicago and African-American wards," said professor Kent Redfield, who studies state elections at the University of Illinois' Springfield campus.

Redfield said Burris' exit means the coming campaign could be less contentious in Chicago as candidates won't have to go after Burris and risk alienating black voters.

At the same time, few political observers expect the contest on the Democratic side to remain a contest among white men, with Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy, son of former U.S. Attorney General Robert Kennedy, being the two leading candidates at this early juncture.

"You still could have a split in the primary vote that is racial as well as regional," said Redfield. How well candidates deal with that is an indication of the strength of their campaigns.

Potential minority candidates on the Democratic side include Cheryle Jackson, president and chief executive of the Chicago Urban League, and Chicago Congressman Danny Davis.

For his part, Davis was interested in the appointment when Obama was elected president. But he ultimately told then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich "no" when offered the post, telling the media: "It was something I wanted to do, but I said I would not take an appointment from the governor."

However, Davis' name has increasingly been circulated as a possible candidate for Cook County Board president. A message left for Davis Friday was not returned.

Jackson has plenty of public relations experience that'd help on a campaign but carries significant Blagojevich baggage. Before joining the Urban League she was a top aide to the now-ousted governor, and the heat of next year's general election could come in the midst of Blagojevich's trial.

Whether a black politician would follow Obama was a central question when it became clear Blagojevich would be able to make an appointment to the seat after Election Day. Organizations in Chicago lobbied his office and held news conferences to demand the seat remain with a black candidate.

U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. emerged as one of the front-runners just before Blagojevich was arrested on charges he was trying to sell the seat.

Accusations that Jackson supporters were planning to raise significant cash for Blagojevich's campaign to get the son of the civil rights leader the seat have now tainted the Chicago Democrat's chances. Blagojevich's federal indictment alleges the governor talked about what kind of campaign donations he could get for appointing Jackson.

As mentioned, Davis declined Blagojevich's appointment and the governor ultimately turned to Burris, who broke racial barriers in the 1970s to become Illinois' first black statewide officeholder but had more recently worked as a tobacco and gambling lobbyist.

Political observers said Friday they fully anticipate minority candidates to join this race, and whoever that person may be could have immediate clout given the state's history.

Consider the 2002 primary for governor, the one that gave Illinois Rod Blagojevich.

Burris was the third Democrat in that race that featured former Chicago schools chief Paul Vallas.

Blagojevich beat Vallas by just over 25,000 votes statewide, 457,197 to 431,720. Burris received 363,591. Of Burris' total, just over 202,000 votes came in Chicago, where he easily beat Vallas and Blagojevich finished third.

In effect, Burris played Chicago spoiler to the Vallas campaign, which did well in the collar counties, and then Blagojevich, ironically, was well-received downstate, which delivered his margin of victory.

Neil Hartigan's narrow 1990 loss to Republican Jim Edgar for governor is attributed to his lack of support in Chicago's black neighborhoods.

And with talk of Jackson entering the picture to join Giannoulias and Kennedy, it's easy to hearken back to Braun's stunning 1992 victory over Democrats Al Hofield and incumbent U.S. Sen. Al Dixon. In that race, two well-funded white guys beat up on each other while a third, black female candidate largely avoided their conflict and came out the winner.

Democratic strategist Kitty Kurth, who's not currently working for any of the prospective Senate campaigns, cautioned that such comparisons ignore many other factors.

"Carol Moseley Braun wasn't just a candidate who happened to be a black woman running against two white men; she was also a candidate with pretty good governmental experience," Kurth said. "Hofield had never been elected to anything. The whole Clarence Thomas thing was going on. People were so mad at Dixon about that."

"Cheryle Jackson, if she were to get in, she is a smart woman who would be an attractive candidate for many reasons, but she hasn't run for office before, she hasn't held office before. It's an apples and oranges situation," Kurth said.

Race: Burris presence helped give Blagojevich victory in '02