Numbers suggest Sox' bats are due to heat up
Two hours before the White Sox began their series finale with Seattle on Wednesday, general manager Ken Williams popped by the dugout for a quick visit.
Though the Sox had managed just 3 runs and 8 hits in the previous day's doubleheader - and Williams has a reputation for being passionate and vocal when his guys aren't performing - the only thing steaming was the cup of coffee in the GM's hands.
"I think if you look at the teams we've played and the pitchers that have thrown against us," Williams said, "sometimes you catch No. 4 or No. 5 (in a team's rotation). We've caught the big boys from the beginning of the season on.
"So sometimes that has a lot to do with what you're able to do - or not to do."
As the Sox (11-10) hit Texas for a three-game weekend set, a quick evaluation indicates 10 of their 21 games have been against No. 1 or No. 2 starters.
That list includes Toronto's Roy Halladay, Seattle's Felix Hernandez, Tampa Bay's James Shields and Sports Illustrated cover boy Zack Greinke. All four sent the Sox to defeat.
On the other hand, in stereotypical Sox fashion, they've also struggled against unknowns such as Seattle's Chris Jakubauskas, Baltimore's Brad Bergesen, Toronto's Brian Tallet and Minnesota's R.A. Dickey.
What's going on here? According to the sabermetric-oriented stats at The Hardball Times Web site, the White Sox might be dealing with the scientific concept known as "hitting in tough luck."
Through Wednesday's games, the Sox ranked ninth in the American League in runs per game (4.62) and 11th in OPS (.749).
By comparison, the Sox finished fifth last year in the AL in runs per game (4.98) and fourth in OPS (.780), so clearly they're lagging behind that postseason-worthy pace.
But some of the more esoteric metrics suggest it's just a matter of time before the Sox get rolling.
For example, they're tied for fourth in hitting line drives (20 percent of the time). More line drives generally lead to more hits, though that hasn't been the case to date.
How do we know? The Sox rank 10th in the league in BABIP (batting average on balls in play) with a .298 showing.
BABIP quantifies the concept that pitchers generally don't control whether a batted ball becomes a hit. Major-league teams usually average a little over .300 on balls that aren't homers.
So if you take the idea the Sox have been hitting a little below the average BABIP - then add the idea that they've been an above-average line drive-hitting team - it sounds like they're due for a run of good luck that moves them back to the norm.
Sox hitting coach Greg Walker doesn't have time to keep track of these concepts. He's too busy watching every swing his guys take from the moment they arrive in the clubhouse.
"We've got a lot of guys that work consistently," Walker said. "They do their work every day. We call it 'maintenance mode.' It's not like, 'Hey, I'm broke. Fix me.' It's just a matter of letting these guys go play and showing confidence in them.
"As long as these guys - especially the ones we've had so much experience with - as long as they don't panic, then I can't panic and we can't panic as a staff. And we haven't. We know them."
Case in point: When Williams made his pregame dugout visit, Carlos Quentin was locked in a 4-for-30 slump with no homers and 1 RBI in the last eight games. More telling, all 7 of his home runs had been pulled to left field. That's not necessarily a good sign for the team's No. 3 hitter.
"I don't know that you should be worrying too much about Carlos Quentin and offense," Williams said. "He'll be fine. When he's hitting the ball to right-center, that's when you know he's on."
Sure enough, with the score tied in the seventh inning of Wednesday's win, Quentin rifled his first home run in 10 days. To right-center.
White Sox vs. Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
TV: Comcast SportsNet today; Channel 9 Saturday; ESPN on Sunday
Radio: WSCR 670-AM
Pitching matchups: Mark Buehrle (3-0) vs. Brandon McCarthy (2-0) today at 7:05 p.m.; Jose Contreras (0-3) vs. Matt Harrison (1-2) Saturday at 7:05 p.m.; John Danks (2-1) vs. Kevin Millwood (2-2) Sunday at 7:05 p.m..
At a glance: The White Sox regain two of the top four hitters in their lineup as 2B Chris Getz (finger) and DH Jim Thome (heel) have been cleared to play. CF Brian Anderson's status (oblique) is dicier and there could be a new/old face out there in Scott Podsednik. The Rangers (10-11) have their own issues as CF Josh Hamilton is fighting a ribcage injury that figures to keep him out this weekend.
Next: Sox at Kansas City Royals, Kauffman Stadium, Monday-Tuesday