Easy to shoot holes in this popular soccer theory

Of the things guaranteed to tumble out of a soccer coach's mouth at some point in a season is the fact that a 2-0 lead is "the most dangerous lead in the game."

Usually the phrase makes its appearance after a team runs riot over the opposition, goes up by a pair of goals, allows a goal almost immediately, then hangs on for dear life and the 2-1 win.

Recently, we've heard it after the Chicago Fire threw away a two-goal advantage against Kansas City and came away with a 2-2 tie. And scribes stand there taking down those words one after the other, and regurgitate them in the following day's newspapers, blogs and telecasts.

But the question remains: is it true?

It just doesn't sound right. Think about it, if you want to defeat a team, it's better to have as many goals between you and the other team. Or what's the point of scoring that second goal - passing all the "Danger, Two-Goal Lead Ahead" signs on the way?

There is a coaching logic to this. The theory goes that at 1-0, a team will defend as if its life depended on it so as to not suffer a game-tying goal. Once a team reaches 2-0, that pressure of instant equalization is removed, so the squad subconsciously relaxes.

And it is here that the danger lies. With the leading team in a relaxed mode, the trailing team scores quickly, halving the deficit. And then with the momentum of that initial goal, the team once down 2-0 continues to roar to life, ties the match and perhaps wins it.

It sounds logical. There's only flaw: it's almost completely incorrect.

It does happen. As mentioned, the Fire allowed two Wizards goals two weeks ago and ended with a frustrating 2-2 tie at Toyota Park when a victory seemed all but assured. Looking at Fire results since 2005, however, the numbers show a different story.

Since 2005, one team or another has taken a 2-0 lead in 45 Fire matches. And those teams, having taken that commanding lead, have gone on to post a 38-2-5 record. Whether it was the Fire or the other team that scored the first two goals, 2-0 was a nearly unassailable margin.

The two reversals both came in 2005, after the Fire scored the first two goals. In one match, D.C. United won 4-3 and in the other Kansas City was a 3-2 victor. That's it. For more than the last three seasons, a 2-0 lead was guaranteed either a win or a tie to the team that reached that plateau.

Those are pros. What about in high school, where this writer plies his trade most of the time? The numbers, if anything, are worse. In the last two years, the girls state finals have seen teams reach 2-0 on 17 occasions. The record of those teams when 80 minutes were complete was 17-0.

Of course it's going to happen. Any result is possible if you play enough matches. And those matches in which a team falls hopelessly behind and then rallies to rescue things will always hold in your memory.

In 1979, in what became known as the "Five-Minute Final," Arsenal led Manchester United 2-0 in the late stages of the FA Cup Final. Manchester United conjured a goal, got an equalizer, and Wembley Stadium erupted. But just before the final whistle, Alan Sunderland popped up on the end of a Liam Brady left-wing cross and put the Gunners back in front for a 3-2 win that still gets this fan's heart racing.

On the biggest stage possible, the World Cup Final, one team or the other has taken a 2-0 lead five times. The team reaching that point has only lost once - when the 1954 Hungarian team had that lead within 10 minutes and West Germany rallied to win.

On one other occasion, the team with the 2-0 lead found itself tied 2-2 - but Argentina won the 1986 title in Mexico when Jorge Burrachaga scored with 7 minutes to play.

So what is the most dangerous lead? Any one-goal advantage is by simple mathematics a problem. Any penalty kick call, any own goal, any ball off a player's head, shin, thigh, midriff - anything - and the match is tied. If a shot comes in, catches a divot in the penalty area and then goes over the goalkeeper's head - the single-goal margin is erased.

And if a team, formerly leading by a single goal suffers an equalizer and is then unsettled, then the team that just scored can now gain momentum and win the match. This happened two weeks ago, when Geneva led 1-0 on Wheaton-Warrenville South.

The visiting Tigers scored and then doubled their goal total while the Vikings were unsettled. The result of that match was 2-1 to WW South.

For years, the most dangerous score line in a St. Charles girls soccer match was 0-0. Any mistake by the opposition made the score 1-0 to the Saints - and there was a time when the Saints didn't allow their opposition one, let alone two goals.

Waubonsie Valley recently went through a two-year spell like that, where a Warriors goal came close to assuring victory.

Dominant teams with strong defenses always seem to be able to run a 1-0 binary-like string of results together if they need to. A 2-0 lead to those teams isn't dangerous at all - it's a chance to put in subs.

Myths exist because people continue to believe them, and I'm sure a coach will spout the "most dangerous lead" myth again sometime this year. But however they phrase it, remember this - it's not true.