Will the second time of state predictions be charmed?

Watching the first boys basketball semifinal last year was a frightening experience.

This was my first foray into continuing the annual Daily Herald tradition of predicting the state tournament. And Marshall, my Class 3A title pick, was in trouble late against downstate Washington.

If Marshall lost it would have set off a chain reaction that would guarantee me 3 defeats after just one game. Not a great way to start.

But Marshall did rally and went on to win the 3A title. It put me on the way to going 6-for-8 with my picks.

Hey, I'll take 6-for-8 any year. So now we'll see if I can avoid any sophomore jinx as the big schools begin play today in Peoria.

Class 4A

Semifinals

Waukegan (25-4) vs. Dundee-Crown (24-5), 6:30 p.m.: Dundee-Crown is one of those fantastic stories of a team making an unexpected breakthrough for its first trip to state.

Few gave the Chargers a chance to beat 31-1 Neuqua Valley on Tuesday night. They overcame the odds and all that matters now is this solid team for coach Lance Huber has two more games left.

They don't have any Division I stars but guard Jeff Beck (17.5 points per game, 6 rebounds per game) is the solid all-around player coaches love.

Marcus Henry (9.3 ppg) also does a lot, Robert Stupar is a long-range threat with 61 3-pointers and 6-foot-6 Charles Kimbrough (7.8 ppg, 7 rpg) will have to be on top of his game inside.

Especially since Waukegan has one of the state's premier talents in 6-6 junior Jereme Richmond (20 ppg, 10 rpg, 4 assists per game). Everything has changed now that the Illinois-bound Richmond and second-year coach Ron Ashlaw have put last season's turmoil behind them.

And 6-3 swingman Colin Nickerson, who should thrive at Fairfield, averages 19 points a game and can help the Bulldogs score in a hurry off their pressure defense.

The pick: Richmond and Waukegan seem to be on a mission and survived one of the state's top sectionals. D-C will hang tough but the Bulldogs will prevail 76-62.

Whitney Young (24-9) vs. Thornton (29-1), 8:15 p.m.: Don't be fooled by the records. Young has jet-setted around the country to play a brutal schedule and its only in-state losses were to defending 2A champ North Lawndale and Morton.

It's fitting the son of Michael Jordan would lead the Dolphins in scoring. But Marcus, a 6-3 senior, is at just 10 points a game for a balanced crew driven by Iowa State-bound guard Chris Colvin (9.9 ppg).

Thornton comes in on an amazing 29-game winning streak after losing its opener to Springfield Southeast. Junior guard Reggie Smith (18 ppg) is a big-time talent and Richie Thompson is also a solid scorer.

The pick: Young won't be fazed by the state tourney hoopla after all the tests it has faced. It will pass this one 65-55.

Third place, 6:30 p.m. Saturday: It's always tough to gauge how teams will play for a consolation prize. How much will Thornton be interested if it comes in off just its second loss of the season?

Dundee-Crown will play with a title-trophy intensity but Thornton will ultimately pull away late 60-52.

Title, 8:15 p.m. Saturday: After Zion-Benton fell just short last year, now it's Waukegan's turn to try and bring the first boys title trophy back to Lake County.

It's a chance for Richmond and the Bulldogs to show how far they've come in just one year. It won't be easy against a talented, tested and deeper Young team.

But Richmond and crew will lead the parade back to Waukegan with a 68-64 win.

Class 3A

Semifinals

North Lawndale (29-4) vs. Champaign Centennial (30-1), noon: As if trying to repeat as a champion after winning the 2A title wasn't enough to deal with for North Lawndale.

The Phoenix moved up one class. Junior Jermaine Winfield (12.3 ppg) was shot in the leg after a game in January but returned to the court a few weeks later. Paul Bunch, a 6-11 junior, missed a big chunk of the season because he was ineligible.

Then 6-5 rebounding machine Jonathan Mills (13.3 ppg, 14.3 rpg), who is headed to Texas A&M Corpus Christi, missed two regional routs when North Lawndale ruled him ineligible for allegedly cheating on a test.

Mills got a court order before the sectional allowing him to play the rest of the tournament. Through it all the talented Phoenix have soared back to Peoria.

Champaign Centennial's only other state trip was 25 years ago. Admittedly I have a soft spot here since eighth-year coach Tim Lavin was a senior starting guard when York made a wonderful run to the AA supersectional in 1982 during my sophomore year at our alma mater.

Ohio-bound James Kinney (17.4 ppg, 7 assists per game) is a tremendous all-around guard complemented by 6-3 swingman Rayvonte Rice (16.5 ppg) and 6-8 Jeff Johnson (13.5 ppg). The Chargers have won 17 in a row since a 2-point loss to Hope at Christmas.

The pick: This figures to be a fun game to watch with North Lawndale averaging 78 points a game and Centennial averaging 69. But the Phoenix will play for another title after an 82-75 win.

Oswego (25-6) vs. Leo (27-4), 1:45 p.m.: Oswego wasn't a team I would have pegged for Peoria after watching it absorb a 70-38 pounding from Conant in the York tourney semifinals at Christmas.

But the Panthers have only lost once in 2009 to make their first state trip since 1974. They're a tough matchup with four starters at 6-4 - including workhorse Andrew Ziemnik (16.7 ppg, 11.7 rpg) and point guard Andrew Galow (12 ppg, 6.4 apg) - and 6-2 swingman Jordan Mitchell (16.5 ppg, 83 3s).

Leo won the 2004 Class A title in coach Noah Cannon's first year and he has the Lions back in Peoria after they rallied to beat Brooks in the supersectional. They won the rugged Chicago Catholic North title and two of their losses were to 2A champion Seton.

They're led by hard-working 5-10 senior James Pointer,who can score (23 ppg) or dish it off to talents such as Darrin Johnson.

The pick: Leo will have some tough size matchups but with Pointer leading the way will win 66-54.

Third place, 11 a.m. Saturday: Oswego and Centennial will bring boys state trophies home for the first time. But Kinney will conclude his wonderful career by bringing the one for third back to Champaign 77-65.

Title, 12:45 p.m. Saturday: Different weekend, different class but same result for North Lawndale. The Phoenix's combination of size and skill will be too much for Leo in a 72-58 victory.

mmaciaszek@dailyherald.com