North Carolina, or ride Louisville to NCAA championship?

The 2009 NCAA Tournament won't be about DeJuan Blair's frightening biceps, Chester Frazier's fractured hand, or Blake Griffin's freakish athleticism.

It's going to be all about Ty Lawson's toe frettish.

You see, we the people have to turn in our pool brackets before Thursday's NCAA openers.

But Lawson, the blurry-quick North Carolina point guard who was honored as the ACC's Player of the Year, doesn't have a timetable for returning to action.

Lawson missed the ACC tournament with a jammed toe on his right foot, which leaves millions of us fretting about his availability in the NCAA Tournament.

Here's my take: North Carolina doesn't need the All-American junior to get through the first weekend's games.

But bank on Lawson being available the rest of the way - and bank on the Tar Heels hotfooting to their first NCAA title since 2005.

Otherwise, if you want to ride a team with a better medical report, go with top overall seed Louisville.

Why? In addition to having the finest and most versatile frontcourt in the nation - I put Terrence Williams and Earl Clark on my 15-man All-America ballot - the Cardinals fulfilled one of my bracketing rules:

Any team that can beat DePaul by 45 points, which the Cardinals accomplished on Feb. 15, is good enough to win it all.

Of course, DePaul had never lost by 45 points until that 99-54 beatdown in Louisville, but I think it's a time-tested rule anyway.

In that same locally focused vein, here's why I'm selecting 13th-seeded Portland State to be this year's Cinderella into the Sweet Sixteen.

Any team that can beat Northern Illinois by 21 points in Alaska - which the Vikings did on Nov. 26 - can upset fourth-seeded Xavier and 12th-seeded Wisconsin on the first weekend.

If you're somebody who likes to pick a bunch of upsets, here are a few that I wrote down and then scratched out:

• North Dakota State, the Midwest regional's 14th seed in its first year of Division I ball, to knock out defending national champion Kansas.

Why? The Bison boast four fifth-year senior starters who've been waiting all their lives for this moment.

The Jayhawks, with the exception of Sherron Collins, are built around guys who didn't have to produce to win the 2008 national crown.

Plus, as Illini fans would be happy to tell you, Kansas has a history of first-round flameouts.

• Cleveland State, the 13th seed in the Midwest, to shock Wake Forest.

Why? The Vikings, similar to NDSU, have studly seniors like Cedric Jackson and J'Nathan Bullock leading the way.

Jackson, who started for St. John's as a sophomore, used to be on the NBA scouts' radar. Here's a way for him to return there.

<div class="infoBox"> <h1>More Coverage</h1> <div class="infoBoxContent"> <div class="infoArea"> <h2>Related documents</h2> <ul class="morePdf"> <li><a href="/pdf/willhitespicks.pdf">Lindsey Willhite's NCAA picks </a></li> </ul> <ul class="morePdf"> <li><a href="/pdf/ncaamens.pdf">NCAA men's tournament brackets </a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>