Rookie competition may be gaining on Rose
College teams jockeyed for position in the NCAA Tournament right up to the final buzzer of the conference tourneys.
Likewise, does Derrick Rose have anything left to prove in the last 15 games to lock up NBA rookie of the year?
At the end of January, an advance scout who has watched at least 120 games in person this season told me that Rose was the best rookie by a wide margin.
New Jersey center Brook Lopez is coming on strong, no doubt, winning Eastern Conference rookie of the month for January and February. Memphis guard O.J. Mayo remains the top rookie scorer at 18.9 points per game.
This week, ESPN analyst John Hollinger argued that Lopez and Grizzlies center Marc Gasol should be the top candidates for rookie of the year based on player efficiency rating.
So I asked the same scout if he thinks Rose is in danger of missing out on the honor. He still thinks Rose will get the award but said, "Lopez has been coming on strong and truly has shown he's a legitimate candidate. Mayo has dropped off a bit lately.
"I think Rose gets it. Mayo's team is just so bad. Devin Harris and Vince Carter kind of overshadow Lopez, as well as the Knicks. Rose is the focal point of the Bulls system and is in a major media market. Plus, he can play."
It's funny that Lopez is having such a strong season, because if the Bulls hadn't lucked out and won the lottery, they would have had the No. 9 pick and probably would have chosen the former Stanford center.
I think it's easy to eliminate Mayo. Even after the Grizzlies won in Detroit on Sunday, their record is just 17-48, fourth-worst in the league. Then if you factor assists into the equation, Rose is responsible for 28.8 points per game, compared to Mayo's 24.9.
When it comes to points plus assists, Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook (26.1) also ranks ahead of Mayo. But Westbrook is way behind Rose in field-goal percentage (.408) and turnovers (3.4 per game). Rose is shooting .462 this season with a relatively low 2.6 turnovers per game.
One thing about Rose, though, is November was by far his best month this season, when he averaged 18.9 points and 6.1 assists and shot .496. In February and March, Rose is still solid but averaging 15.7 points and 5.8 assists and shooting .453.
Lopez has been remarkable since Feb. 1, averaging 15.4 points and 8.1 rebounds with a .627 field-goal percentage. Overall this season, though, Lopez is the No. 6 rookie scorer and ranks second in rebounds behind Minnesota's Kevin Love. How much of Lopez's production is the result of knocking down open shots after Harris draws multiple defenders?
The Bulls and New Jersey have similar records, so team success isn't really a factor. I can remember arguing back in 2000 that rookie of the year voters shouldn't hold team success against Elton Brand in his battle with Houston's Steve Francis, because the Bulls were trying to lose back then to get a high draft pick (it all paid off in Marcus Fizer). Brand and Francis ended up sharing the award.
One statistic that has perplexed Bulls fans all season is Rose's low number of trips to the foul line. Despite all his drives to the basket, Rose averages just 3 free-throw attempts per game, fewer than Westbrook (5.3), the Clippers' Eric Gordon (4.5), Gasol (4.3) and Mayo (3.7).
I'd argue that this fact makes Rose's rookie season even more remarkable. Referees aren't giving him many breaks.
I still think Rose should be an easy winner for rookie of the year, and I would vote Lopez second right now. Obviously, though, this rookie class has lived up to its high expectations.
We could see an all-rookie first team of Rose, Mayo, Westbrook, Lopez and Gasol that doesn't even include quality players like Gordon, Love, Miami's Michael Beasley or Mario Chalmers, Portland's Rudy Fernandez or the year's best sleeper pick, Milwaukee's Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.
If Rose finishes first among this group, it will be an impressive achievement.
mmcgraw@dailyherald.com