Gordon's decision not to sign with the Bulls could cost both parties
If there was ever a time when two sides would choose to go back in time to fix a failed negotiation, it's the Bulls and Ben Gordon.
The team's leading scorer will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and in control of his own destiny. If he signs with a new team, the Bulls will most likely get nothing in return.
Gordon is one of just seven NBA guards currently averaging 20 points while shooting better than 45 percent from the field. The others are Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, Chris Paul, Michael Redd and Tony Parker.
At the same time, this is the wrong time to be shopping for a huge payday in the NBA or anywhere else. Most every team in the league is facing declining revenues and will be looking to cut costs.
Talk across the Bulls organization is that they definitely want to re-sign Gordon this summer and have been happy with his performance. But no one is sure whether it will happen, because the Bulls would almost certainly have to pay the NBA's luxury tax next season in order to keep him.
Neither side is in a comfortable spot heading into the off-season.
If Gordon does have the desire to join a new team, there are only three that appear certain to have a significant amount of salary-cap room this summer - Detroit, Memphis and Oklahoma City.
Two of those teams are among the league's smallest markets, while the other is in a troubled economic region. So it wouldn't be surprising for all three franchises to spend conservatively this summer. An undersized shooting guard doesn't figure to be a top priority for those teams, although anything is possible.
Gordon demonstrated two extremes in the past week. He combined for 77 points in consecutive games against Milwaukee and Miami, then hit just 4 of 19 shots in the next two contests, losses at Orlando and Philadelphia.
"People like to pick out Ben Gordon's flaws all the time, but the great majority of games I've coached against Ben, he has been tremendous," said a longtime NBA assistant coach. "I would agree that Ben is more valuable to the Bulls than most other teams."
Considering the apparent lack of competition, the Bulls should stand a good chance of re-signing Gordon with an offer similar to what he turned down last summer, roughly $54 million over six years.
In the recent past, the Bulls have made a policy of refusing to pay the luxury tax, a dollar-for-dollar penalty that kicks in when a team's payroll exceeds a certain level. This season's tax threshold was $71.15 million and it's expected to drop next year. The Bulls already have nine players under contract for next season at just over $63 million and a pair of first-round draft picks would add about $2 million to that total if they're not traded away or sent to play in Europe.
So that could leave just $4 million-$5 million to spend on Gordon's first-year salary before the Bulls hit the luxury tax.
Of course, the reason the Bulls are so close to the tax threshold is because they spent $60 million to sign free agent Ben Wallace in 2006, a move that didn't pan out. Last year's decision to re-sign forward Luol Deng for $71 million doesn't look good in hindsight, either, since Deng has slumped and struggled with injuries for the second consecutive season.
An argument could be made that the Bulls shouldn't compound two mistakes by making a third and letting Gordon walk away for nothing. One piece of good news is the Bulls would have to pay the luxury tax for only one year, since they'll have $25 million in expiring contracts next year between Brad Miller, Tim Thomas and Jerome James.
Most every league observer felt Gordon and his agent, Raymond Brothers, should have agreed to terms last year. Gordon actually tried to accept the Bulls' offer last September after the team-imposed deadline had passed. The Bulls chose not to put it back on the table.
"He should have taken Chicago's initial contract two seasons ago and everyone would have been much happier," said the longtime assistant coach. "He got bad advice."
A veteran NBA advance scout pointed out how players that agreed to deals last year, before the economy went in the toilet, are looking smart now.
"Look at (Lakers center) Andrew Bynum," he said. "His agent was able to secure him almost a max deal, but it doesn't even start until next year. Bynum's agent got him a big deal just before the economics became a major issue. If these guys listen to the wrong adviser and have the wrong agent, they will leave a ton of money on the table."