U of I assembles budget forecasting model

SPRINGFIELD -- With Illinois government drowning in red ink, officials clearly need some help figuring out the state budget. Economists at the University of Illinois are trying their best.

They are developing a computer model to analyze the budget and calculate how different decisions would affect the state's financial future.

"Illinois in particular -- but all state and local governments -- don't plan much for the out years," Richard Dye, co-director of the Fiscal Futures Project at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, said Thursday. "All the choices that are going to be made are going to be short-term and driven by the economy and immediacy of the problem they face."

Lawmakers this year are worried about a looming budget deficit expected to reach $9 billion. What they forget, Dye said, is that decisions on spending and revenue to fix today's problems will still be felt 10 years from now.

The computer system would evaluate things like the impact of aging baby boomers on state health costs or how a changing economy will affect tax revenue.

Lawmakers create a budget every spring that includes billions of dollars for education, health care and human services. Last year's budget totaled $67 billion.

The program, which is still in its early stages, eventually would let experts plug in budget proposals to project tax revenue and state spending using economic forecasts and demographic trends.

David Merriman, Dye's colleague on the project, said he hopes it will spell out the pros and cons of different options and force politicians to justify their choices.

A simple version ultimately might be available online so that ordinary Illinoisans could play around with budget scenarios.

Dye doesn't expect the project to be finished in time to help officials write the next budget but hopes the system will be ready by the end of the year.

Several government support and watchdog groups are pitching in on the project, including the Taxpayers' Federation of Illinois, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and the Illinois Education Association.