Piniella on a real 'roll' with leadoff situation

The quickest way to elicit an eye roll from anybody in the Cubs family is to start a sentence with, "Lou just said."

In other words, you can go up to a relief pitcher and say, "Lou just said you're the new closer."

Or you can go to general manager Jim Hendry and say, "Lou just said you need more left-handed hitting."

Or you can even go up to Alfonso Soriano and say, "Lou just said you might bat lower in the order."

Of course, this "Lou" we're talking about is Cubs manager Lou Piniella. Depending on the time of the day, his mood or whether the Cubs just won or lost, Piniella is liable to say just about anything.

At least Piniella keeps most of his out-loud thinking to the realm of baseball, unlike predecessor Dusty Baker, who was just as likely to wax philosophical on everything from, well, philosophy to sociology.

The latest contretemps coming out of the Cubs' spring-training home in Mesa, Ariz., is that Piniella may take Soriano out of the leadoff spot and move him down in the order so as to take advantage of Soriano's power.

Then, the next day, Soriano is going to stay right where he's at.

By now, none of this should come as any surprise to anybody, and on Feb. 20 or 21, it shouldn't send anybody into widespread panic, either.

Even as Piniella was talking about moving Soriano down the other day, he was leaving himself the ultimate out by saying he still likes Soriano as the Cubs' leadoff man.

And it says here, some 6½ weeks before Opening Day in Houston, that Soriano will be the Cubs' leadoff hitter on that day and most that follow over the next six months. For better or worse.

The "better" is that the Cubs were 69-36 last year in games Soriano led off and 28-28 in all other games. The "better" is that Soriano can put the Cubs ahead 1-0 with one swing of the bat on any given day.

The "worse" - or "worst" to read my e-mails and my blog at dailyherald.com - is that Soriano doesn't have plate discipline and that he's 3-for-28 in the last two division series, both of which the Cubs were swept. In fairness to Soriano, Aramis Ramirez was 2-for-23 in the 2007 and 2008 NLDS.

Be aware of this: The Cubs know fully well Soriano isn't an ideal leadoff hitter. His lifetime on-base percentage is only .329 (it was .344 last year), and because his legs have bothered him, his stolen-base totals have fallen from 41 in 2006 to 19 in each of the last two seasons. You also can argue that, given the Cubs lineup and their home ballpark, the stolen base ought to be a minor part of the Cubs' attack, but we'll save that for another day, another column or another blog.

As much as the Cubs, and Piniella, know that Soriano isn't exactly, say, Brian Roberts, when it comes to batting first, they believe he's still their best option. For one, Soriano has a "comfort" level there. Before you say, "Lou should run the team and that's that," that isn't how it works in pro sports anymore. It's not an ego thing as some have said, but Soriano clearly feels best batting first, and he's had most of his career success doing that.

The Cubs have a few other options. Ryan Theriot had a stellar .387 OBP last year. He's been a good No. 2 hitter, and Piniella has picked the right times to move Theriot to No. 8 when Theriot gets tired. But Theriot has made too many outs on the basepaths.

Aaron Miles, who will be a spot starter, had a .355 OBP last year (his career OBP is .329). He may lead off when Piniella gives Soriano some of the rest he's talked about this spring.

Mike Fontenot, who figures to start at second base, is an intriguing possibility because he had an OBP of .395 with 9 homers in 243 at-bats last year. And who knows of part-time center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, whose name Piniella has thrown out as a possible leadoff man.

There's no arguing the Cubs' success in the regular season the last two years, particularly last year, when they won 97 games. The problem is the playoffs, but it's impossible to construct one team for the regular season and another for the postseason.

To his credit, Soriano has said he'll gladly move down. He says all he asks is a little time to get used to it. The Cubs figure to win their division wherever Soriano bats. Perhaps Piniella ought to use spring training and the regular season to experiment and see what works best.

Maybe I'll suggest it to Lou and let him roll his eyes at me.