NU fully aware Illinois always seems able to stop its offense
There are lots of reasons Northwestern finds itself within sniffing range of the NCAA Tournament in mid-February for the first time since 1999.
Most of them re- volve around the fact this edition of Wildcats finds the range with their shots.
Going into to- night's standing-room-only battle with No. 22 Illinois at Welsh-Ryan Arena - in which a win would radically improve its odds for the school's first NCAA berth - NU remains on pace to set several Bill Carmody-era offensive records.
Not only are the Wildcats enjoying their highest scoring average (65.3 ppg) in 14 seasons, they haven't shot so well from the field (45.6 percent) since 1998 and haven't shot so well on 3-pointers (39.1 percent) since 1991.
Why go so numbers-crazy when an NU-Illinois game usually stirs up enough emotion to take the focus away from rational analysis?
Because the Illini, better than any other Big Ten team, have solved Carmody's Princeton-style offense. Since Bruce Weber took over in April 2003, Illinois has gone 9-1 against the Wildcats and limited them to 50.2 points per game.
Carmody, while acknowledging good scouting and strong preparation accounts for some of Illinois' success, also has a pragmatic view of recent events.
"Guys asked me, 'Is there something about them?' " Carmody said. "You know, they've had pretty good teams the last few years. Whew."
But now that the Wildcats are enjoying their best offensive season under Carmody - and living in the same area code as the Illini when it comes to win totals and power rankings - does that mean NU can snap its recent brutal run against Illinois?
In their last five meetings, the Wildcats have managed just 47, 47, 43, 37 and 37 points.
"They do a good job defending the wings," said NU junior wing Kevin Coble, who has averaged just 7.0 points and shot 35 percent in his three games against Illinois.
"They put on a lot of pressure, and we've been working on some stuff to counter that pressure. I think that's what's going to be important for us - to find ways to use that pressure against them."
Indeed, as the Wildcats ran their stuff during Tuesday's practice against an aggressive scout defense, Carmody reminded his guys their plays are designed to defeat hard-playing defenders.
It was almost as if Carmody tuned into Weber's Tuesday morning media luncheon.
"We have not played well the last two Thursdays," said Weber, referring to Illinois' wipeouts at Minnesota and Wisconsin. "We've got to see if we can change that.
"I would hope we got through to the guys after Wisconsin. I think the biggest message is we've just got to come out and play hard and guard people and let everything else just kind of come."
Carmody insists it won't take long during any given NU possession to tell which team owns the upper hand.
"Our offense runs very well if a defense is hard," Carmody said, "but doesn't get to the point where you can't breathe and you can't initiate anything.
"Usually, if we can get our first pass in there and initiate the offense in the half-court, then we're in pretty good shape."
Illinois (19-5, 7-4) at Northwestern (13-8, 4-6)
When: 8 p.m. at Welsh-Ryan Arena
TV: ESPN2
Radio: WGN 720-AM, WIND 560-AM
Skinny: The 22nd-ranked Illini have won the last nine meetings between the teams - all of them by double figures. Crazily enough, each of the last 17 games in this series have been decided by at least 10 points. That shouldn't be the case tonight as the Wildcats have been nearly unbeatable at home (11-2) while the Illini have lost their last four road games. Illinois needs to make 3-pointers and crash the offensive boards against Northwestern's 1-3-1 zone in order to win, but Bruce Weber's bunch has hit just 18 of 88 3-pointers (20.4 percent) in Big Ten road games this year. Conversely, Illinois ranks fifth nationally in 3-point defense (28.2 percent), but the Wildcats have hit 49 percent of their 3s in their last five home games.
- Lindsey Willhite