Tough stretch for Illinois opens with Michigan
Just two months and one day remain until Selection Sunday. Do you know where your Illini might be on college basketball's highest holy day?
According to The Bracket Project, a Web site that tracks 32 predicted brackets across the blogosphere, Illinois stacks up as a unanimous choice to make the NCAA Tournament.
On average, the Illini (14-2) are pegged as a No. 6 seed alongside Purdue, Louisville and Memphis.
These are pleasant thoughts to the Illini buff who suffered through a 16-19 season a year ago, but here's a good time to proffer the projections' rub:
Illinois has played just four predicted NCAA teams to date - Clemson, Missouri, Purdue and Michigan.
That's one fewer than the Illini will face in, oh, the next five games beginning with today's rematch against No. 25 Michigan.
It's a grueling run that no Illinois team has faced since the end of the 1998-99 season, when Cory Bradford and Co., had 11 of their last 12 games against NCAA teams.
"I think we're in a stretch here where we're going to really find out what we're about," Illinois coach Bruce Weber said. "If we can compete for the Big Ten championship or be up in that upper echelon of teams, the next couple weeks we'll find out a lot about that."
History shows how important a solid record against NCAA Tournament foes can be.
Last year's Illini, who snapped the program's streak of eight straight NCAA appearances, went 1-11 against NCAA teams. The 2006-07 team went 7-9 and wound up barely sneaking into the tournament with a No. 12 seed.
But the seven seasons before that - when the Illini always got a No. 5 seed or better - they went 53-35 against NCAA opponents.
Enough about the old days, though. What about these Illini make them a good bet to perform well during this five-game test?
• Pure shooting: Illinois finished seventh in field-goal shooting, 10th in 3-point shooting and 11th in free-throw shooting among Big Ten teams last season.
Through Sunday's games, this year's Illini led the league in field-goal shooting (48.3 percent), stood fourth in 3-point shooting (39.0) and ranked third in free-throw shooting (73.3).
They've improved because better-shooting Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis have replaced Shaun Pruitt and Brian Randle in the starting lineup - and because senior guard Chester Frazier has learned how to set them up.
Frazier averaged 3.6 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game last season, but he has upped the assists (6.2 apg) this season without an increase in turnovers.
Against Purdue, in particular, Frazier was masterful at driving and dishing to teammates for open jumpers.
"When you go into the lane, and I guessed I've battled him for a couple years on that," Weber said, "you're going in to draw the defense and get it to somebody else.
"It's a hard concept to learn and that's why there's not many great point guards around anymore - there's an art to that, and Chester's gotten a lot better at it."
• Improving defense: Randle's graduation took away Illinois' best and most versatile defender. Pruitt had the muscle to deal with post players.
Despite their losses, Illinois' defensive percentages have improved as everyone purchased the team concept wholesale.
It's important to note that Illinois' 10-point loss at Michigan on Jan. 4 coincided with a breakdown in those team-defense principles.
"Our weak-side defense was just atrocious," Weber said. "Wisconsin was the one that beat (Michigan) in the Big Ten, and one thing Wisconsin does, they contest the 3-pointers and yet they protect the lane.
"They're able to do both. I'm hoping we can do both."