Big Ten season could become wild scramble

The time-honored RPI formula that influences the NCAA Tournament committee says Northwestern ranks as the Big Ten's best team - and as No. 10 in the country.

No. 21 Minnesota, which lost its top three scorers from last season, stands among the nation's nine undefeated teams.

Michigan knocked off UCLA and Duke to earn a spot in the current Top 25.

And Illinois, which looked in October like a team destined for a rebuilding year, ranks among the Top 25 according to the RPI, Jeff Sagarin's Predictor formula and Ken Pomeroy's power rankings.

What we're trying to say here is, what in the world is going on with the Big Ten?

The Wildcats, Wolverines, Illini and Gophers were four of the six schools that posted losing records in Big Ten play last season.

But as Illinois and Purdue kick off Big Ten action today at Mackey Arena (6 p.m., ESPN2), it looks like there's anarchy afoot in Jim Delany's league.

With the notable exception of Indiana, where a freshman-heavy team suffers for the sins of former coach Kelvin Sampson, every Big Ten team has reasons to believe 2009 will be special.

Sagarin's USA Today Predictor rankings, which are designed to tell the point differential between any two teams, probably tell the story best.

The league's top 10 teams are separated by less than 9 Predictor points. Purdue, the preseason favorite, stands uneasily at the top (87.92) with Penn State (79.04) in 10th.

"I think we're in a good position," Purdue coach Matt Painter told The Associated Press. "I think we've been tested. We've played neutral games at Madison Square Garden against two good opponents (Boston College and Oklahoma).

"We had a huge game against Duke where I think we learned a lot about our team."

But staring through the Sagarin magnifying glass a little harder, you see Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan separated by less than 2.5 points.

Only the Pac-10 comes close to approximating such close-knit depth.

"Purdue and Michigan State are probably still the favorites," Illinois coach Bruce Weber said. "But there are 6-7 other teams that all feel like they have a chance, maybe not to win the thing, but be in that upper echelon."

The Illini (12-1) will soon learn where they rank in that echelon. Six of their first eight Big Ten games are against teams ranked in the AP's Top 25 - and four of those games are on the road.

Only Northwestern, which has five Top 25 opponents in its first seven games, faces a comparable start.

"If we can find a way to win (at Purdue), that gives us an advantage over everybody else," Weber said. "I think we'll know a lot more about our team in the first three weeks. Are we contenders or pretenders?"

All-Big Ten preconference team

G Talor Battle Penn State

The Big Ten's top scorer (19.2 ppg) does it all with 5.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 35 3-pointers. Oh, 22 steals as well.

G Manny Harris Michigan

Ranks among league's top six in scoring (19.0 ppg), rebounding (7.1 rpg), passing (4.9 assists) and FT% (.887).

F Robbie Hummel Purdue

The preseason POY remains rock-solid with 14.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 40% 3-point shooting and 89% FT shooting.

F DeShawn Sims Michigan

The Big Ten's leading rebounder (9.2 rpg) and No. 3 scorer (17.2 ppg) has made several big shots.

F Evan Turner Ohio State

Ranks fourth in scoring (16.2 ppg), first in steals (2.7) and fifth in rebounding (7.2) while handling mostly PG duties.

Predicted order of finish (with current record)

1. Purdue (11-2)

Defense wins championships. Boilers have the best defense.

2. Michigan State (9-2)

Spartans look great since Suton returned from injury.

3. Wisconsin (9-3)

A nod to Bo Ryan and Trevon Hughes' continued improvement.

4. Michigan (9-2)

Lucas-Perry complements the mighty Harris and Sims.

5. Penn State (11-2)

Seniors like Cornley and Pringle mesh with Battle.

6. Ohio State (9-1)

Bucks miss injured Lighty; await B.J. Mullens' greatness.

7. Illinois (12-1)

Slender frontcourt will be exploited on defense too often.

8. Minnesota (12-0)

Love Damian Johnson, but weak schedule hurts Gophs.

9. Northwestern (8-2)

Sadly for senior Craig Moore, 'Cats appear a year away.

10. Iowa (10-3)

Young guns Tucker and Gatens learn road the hard way.

11. Indiana (5-7)

If Hoosiers win four games, give Crean the Coach of the Year.

- Lindsey Willhite