Obama victory a bench mark for Democrats in Kane County

Just about all the experts predicted a Democratic wave would sweep the country on Nov. 4. Illinois was never in doubt. But few expected the blue tsunami that deluged Kane County on election night.

Kane County, after all, is the place that repeatedly re-elected former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert. And even amid mass Democratic victories Nov. 4, the county re-elected a Republican, Karen McConnaughay, to be the chairman of the Kane County Board.

Indeed, there was no mass washout of Republicans from the Kane County Board or the constitutional offices. But if the swing in favor of a Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, is any indication of the future, Kane County Republicans have quite a bit of work to do just to maintain their ground.

In 2004, Kane County voters (excluding the city of Aurora, which has its own election commission) helped re-elect President George W. Bush by more than 22,000 votes. In 2008, Kane County voters (again, without Aurora) selected Barack Obama to lead the country over the Republican chosen to succeed Bush, John McCain, by more than 10,000 votes.

The swing is more dramatic than even that number when the individual precincts in the county are examined.

In 2004, there were 220 voting precincts in Kane County. By 2008, the county's population had swelled enough to add nine more precincts. People have moved in and out of those original 220 precincts during the last four years, but unless there are major housing changes in a precinct, it's fair to expect voting and party preferences to stay similar.

But consider this­ - of those original 220 precincts, not a single precinct in Kane County that voted for John Kerry in 2004, changed its mind and voted for Republican John McCain on Nov. 4. Meanwhile, 90 precincts that voted for Bush in 2004 chose the Democrat, Obama, this time around.

The results did not come from an expected stampede of new voters. Though record voter turnouts were predicted, voter registration was actually down in 140 of the original 220 Kane County precincts from four years ago.

Overall, registration increased by about 11,400 voters. Nearly 18,800 more votes were cast in the presidential election compared to 2004, and turnout of registered voters ticked upward by about 4.5 percentage points to just under 76 percent.

None of this means Republicans will necessarily be banished from Kane County anytime soon. There are still plenty of areas that maintained their Republican loyalty on election night, and plenty others where it was close enough to ensure continued battles in the near future.

The clear Obama fans live in Aurora, Batavia, Dundee and Elgin Townships where far more precincts leaned toward a Democratic president Nov. 4. The clear McCain fans live in Blackberry, Big Rock, Burlington, Campton, Hampshire, Kaneville, Plato and Virgil Townships where often not a single precinct voted for Obama.

The battlegrounds will be Geneva, Rutland, St. Charles and Sugar Grove Townships, where campaign signs in yards will continue to mean war, including an exact 601 votes to 601 votes tie between Obama and McCain in St. Charles Precinct 21.

Next on tap are primaries for local candidates in February and local elections in April. Those races are mostly nonpartisan and may provide the healing time Kane County Republicans need before voters get to choose between the parties again in February 2010.