Facts to consider as the results roll in
By midnight Tuesday, millions of conservatives probably will believe the nation is ruined. And millions of "progressives," again calling themselves liberals, probably will have decided Heaven is at hand.
Political numeracy can illuminate the hours before midnight. As Tuesday's numbers accumulate, here are some benchmarks to bear in mind:
The House of Representatives has 235 Democrats and 199 Republicans; the Senate has 51 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 49 Republicans. Republican losses should be measured against the aftermath of two debacles a decade apart.
President Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide victory over Barry Goldwater produced a House with 295 Democrats and 140 Republicans, and a Senate with 68 Democrats and 32 Republicans. The 1974 post-Watergate congressional elections produced a House with 291 Democrats and 144 Republicans, and a Senate with 60 Democrats, 38 Republicans, one independent who caucused with the Democrats and one Conservative Party member who caucused with the Republicans.
Five Deep South states - South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana - voted for Goldwater in 1964. In 1968, they voted for a third-party candidate, George Wallace. In 1972, they voted for Richard Nixon over George McGovern. In 1976, they voted for Jimmy Carter, the Georgia Democrat, over President Gerald Ford. In 1980, Carter again carried Georgia. Since then, only two of the five have voted Democratic - Bill Clinton carried Georgia in 1992 and Louisiana in 1992 and 1996. Since 1980, Democratic presidential candidates have averaged only 42.5 percent of the vote in the five states. Measure Barack Obama's performance there - built upon increased turnout of African-Americans, 30 percent of the populations - against that 42.5 percent.
Eleven states with 63 electoral votes have not voted Democratic in the 10 elections since 1964: Alaska, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana and Virginia. On election eve, Obama is competitive in Virginia and Indiana, which Bush carried in 2004 by margins of 8.2 and 20.7 percentage points, respectively. In Nebraska, which is one of two states (Maine is the other) that allocate an electoral vote to the candidate who carries each congressional district, Obama might win the 2nd District (Omaha). In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry there by 22 percentage points.
Seven states with 60 electoral votes have voted Democratic only once since 1964: North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, Colorado and Arizona. It will not be startling if Obama carries two - Colorado and North Carolina. In 2004, Bush carried them by 4.7 and 12.4 percentage points, respectively.
Tuesday night might be chaotic. Judging by the multiplying warnings that voting arrangements might buckle under the weight of predictably large turnouts, Election Day seems to have taken many state and local governments by surprise, yet again. Such dreary developments, anticipated with certainty, must be borne philosophically.
© 2008, Washington Post Writers Group