What Illinois, Northwestern and NIU must do to get bowl bids
You might think 34 college football bowl games are a little excessive.
That's two bowls more than ever before. That's 12 bowls more than 10 years ago.
Considering there are just 119 Football Bowl Subdivision teams to fill this season's 68 slots, this means four out of every seven schools are bowl-bound.
Sounds dumb. Sounds wrong. Sounds greedy.
But let's see if we can make the seeming bowl overload sound like a good thing. Here goes:
This could well become the first season Illinois, Northwestern and Northern Illinois all get to play in bowls.
Considering there's only been one year (1983) when two of the three have played in bowls, that's a definite achievement.
But there's still some work to do.
Northern Illinois (5-3) needs to split its last four games - three of which are against teams with a combined 19-5 record.
Illinois (4-4) needs to win two or three of its final four - and Ron Zook's crew must face teams with a combined 24-9 record.
Northwestern (6-2) might not need to win again. But the Wildcats won't exactly inspire a bowl's confidence if they end the regular season with five straight losses.
Let's handicap each team's chances of making a bowl.
Illinois
Whereas two 6-6 Big Ten teams had to stay home last season because there were 10 bowl-eligible teams for eight slots, 6-6 ought to be good enough this season.
The Big Ten has seven bowl tie-ins (eight if a second team makes a BCS bowl) and Indiana, Michigan and Purdue all are headed for sub-.500 records and bowl ineligibility.
So that suggests the Illini must split their final four. There are home games with Iowa and Ohio State, a "neutral" game with Western Michigan in Detroit and a season-ending trip to Northwestern.
According to Jeff Sagarin's "Predictor" ratings in USA Today, the Illini currently are favored only against Western Michigan.
"Oh, I don't think it's desperation," said Illinois coach Ron Zook, "but I don't think there's any question our backs are in the corner."
CollegeBCS.com operator Jerry Palm, for one, believes the Illini will come out fighting and winning.
He has Illinois pegged for a Dec. 27 date with Maryland in the Champs Sports Bowl.
Northwestern
Again, it seems likely that 6-6 will get Big Ten teams in a bowl.
But what if there are multiple 6-6 teams, the Big Ten doesn't get a second BCS bowl bid, and one of the 6-6 teams has to get left out?
Wildcats athletic director Jim Phillips would have to do a great selling job to keep his small-attendance team from being the odd school out.
That means NU, despite having a new backfield in QB Mike Kafka and RB Omar Conteh for at least one week, needs to pick up a win somewhere.
What has kept the Wildcats from already getting that seventh win?
"We cannot turn the ball over and expect to win Big Ten football games," said coach Pat Fitzgerald. "I think we're plus-5 (in turnover margin) in our six wins and we're minus-8 in our losses.
"There you go. Enough said. End of discussion. Take care of the football. Get the ball back. Give ourselves an opportunity to win."
CollegeBCS.com has the Wildcats headed to Detroit to play Ball State in the Motor City Bowl.
Northern Illinois
When the Huskies head to undefeated Ball State on Wednesday, they'll go in with 5 wins in their last six games.
While some have denigrated Ball State's easy schedule to date (it ranks 116th according to Sagarin), NIU's schedule ranks 123rd despite games at Minnesota and Tennessee.
The Huskies seem likely to win their next-to-last game at Kent State (2-6), so that means they need a home win over Central Michigan (6-2) or Navy (5-3).
CollegeBCS.com doesn't believe the Huskies can get two more wins, but Rivals.com has NIU going to Honolulu to play Hawaii.
If that's not enough incentive to get a second win and qualify for a bowl-