Road map to Election Day

With both party conventions behind us, the presidential campaign now comes down to two months of hard campaigning. Here is a road map to take you through these final 58 days.

Top Issues

Iraq

Barack Obama: Opposed Iraq invasion, opposed troop surge and calls for 16-month withdrawal timetable.

John McCain: Rejects timetable for withdrawal but says improved ground conditions could justify war's end within 16 months. Supported surge and voted for Iraq war.

Economy

McCain: Make President Bush tax cuts permanent, eliminate alternative minimum tax, double deduction for dependents up to $7,000 and cut corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent.

Obama: Keep Bush tax cuts for those making less than $200,000 a year, allow most other Bush tax breaks to expire, exempt those older than 65 making less than $50,000 from income tax, provide $500-per-individual tax credit to those paying Social Security taxes. Index minimum wage to inflation, extend unemployment benefits.

Gas prices

Obama: End tax breaks for oil industry, tax oil-industry profits, expand offshore drilling, increase alternative energy programs, tighten gas mileage requirements, regulate oil speculation.

McCain: Expand offshore drilling, leave gas mileage standards alone, suspend federal gas tax, regulate oil speculation more closely.

Health care

McCain: Provide $2,500 in tax incentives to buy insurance, allow out-of-state coverage and small-business insurance associations.

Obama: Create national health insurance exchange program based on public and private coverage. Companies could not reject applicants based on illness. Allow drug imports.

Other issues:

Obama: Supports abortion rights, opposes constitutional ban on gay marriage, backs gun control, repeal "don't ask, don't tell" military policy, favors path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, revise NAFTA.

McCain: Opposes abortion rights, supports "Don't ask, don't tell" military policy, has not supported constitutional ban on gay marriage, favors path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, pro-NAFTA.

Armchair analyst

McCain will need to inspire a strong turnout from the Republican base, which he hopes to achieve with running mate Sarah Palin's help. But the Arizona senator also will need to drum up significant support from independent voters, particularly those who went with Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. His compelling story as a Vietnam prisoner of war may help here.

McCain's biggest liabilities appear to be President Bush's basement-level approval ratings as well as a floundering economy. He will have to prove himself competent on economic issues and able to tackle problems such as oil prices and global warming.

McCain made experience a key issue in the race, and polls show Americans see him as a reliable commander in chief. Will appeal to voters who now think surge strategy is proving successful.

Obama is banking on a strategy to defy decades of Democratic practice. That's because he has trouble with older women and white voters in some Midwestern and southern states, the voters who elected Bill Clinton. Illinois' junior senator needs high turnout from black and young voters, loyalty from the party's more liberal elements and a sizable chunk of independent voters.

On the nation's challenges, Obama has to position himself as the best candidate to rally the country back toward prosperity. Talk of universal health care and more government programs has not proved enough for Democrats to win recent elections.

Obama's early opposition to the Iraq war plays well with many voters. But his relative inexperience in office - four years into his first U.S. Senate term - could be a liability as voters contemplate international turmoil and terrorist threats.

Key Voting Blocs

Black voters

Polls show 90 percent favoring Obama, consistent with percentage who voted for Obama by primary season's end. In 2004, when blacks accounted for 11 percent of presidential electorate, black voter registration lagged white registration by 3.5 percent, actual voting turnout lagged by 4 percent. Big question is whether blacks will turn out in numbers large enough to give Obama a chance in any southern states besides Virginia.

Hispanics

McCain has enjoyed strong Hispanic backing in his Arizona campaigns and drew Hispanic support for his work on failed immigration-reform legislation. But Obama, who struggled to win Hispanic votes in primary against Hillary Clinton, now enjoys large lead among Hispanic voters, who gave estimated 40 percent of their votes to George Bush in 2004.

Women

McCain put Sarah Palin on ticket in hopes of drawing female voters. Women have been drifting from GOP presidential candidates since Ronald Reagan left office. Women, who have constituted 52 to 54 percent of the presidential electorate since 1988, gave Democrat John Kerry only a 3-point margin in 2004, but current polls show Obama leading among women by 12 to 18 percentage points.

Working class

A problem for Obama throughout the primary season against Hillary Clinton. Polls give McCain a roughly 10-point lead among white men who have not completed a college degree.

Young people

Big question for Obama: Will his young backers vote? Harvard's Institute of Politics has Obama leading by more than 20 points among likely voters ages 18 to 24. Notoriously unreliable on Election Day, voters in this age group did, however, nearly double their primary turnout from 2004 to 2008 and increased their general election turnout, from 36 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2004.

Debates

Presidential debate

Friday, Sept. 26

University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.

Jim Lehrer, executive editor and anchor, the NewsHour, PBS

Vice presidential debate

Thursday, Oct. 2

Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.

Gwen Ifill, senior correspondent, the NewsHour, and moderator/managing editor, "Washington Week," PBS

Presidential debate (town meeting)

Tuesday, Oct. 7

Belmont University, Nashville, Tenn.

Tom Brokaw, senior correspondent, NBC News

Presidential debate

Wednesday, Oct. 15

Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.

Bob Schieffer, CBS News chief Washington correspondent and host, "Face the Nation."

Time: Each debate will begin at 8 p.m., Central Time

Format

Each debate will feature one moderator and last 90 minutes

In the first and third presidential debates and the vice presidential debate, candidates will be seated with a moderator at a table.

One presidential debate will focus primarily on domestic policy and one on foreign policy. The second presidential debate will be conducted as a town meeting in which citizens will pose questions.

The vice presidential debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics.

The VP nominees

Sen. Joe Biden from Delaware

Chair, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

Former chair, Senate Committee on the Judiciary

Knows Washington politics

Lends foreign policy experience Obama lacks

Has met world leaders

Potential liabilities:

Washington insider, at odds with Obama's "change" theme

Known for occasional gaffes

May not help draw Hillary Clinton backers

Alaska Gov. Sara Palin

Captivating speaker

Could attract women voters

Conservative views energize lukewarm McCain supporters

Knowledge on energy issues

Executive experience

Potential liabilities:

Under investigation for possible improper firing

Lacks foreign policy experience

Hasn't completed first term as governor

Public still learning her views on issues

Governor of sparsely populated state

Where VP nominee disagrees with top of ticket

Palin/McCain

Palin favors Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling; McCain opposes

Palin has said she does not think global warming caused by man; McCain says humans contribute to global warming and led Senate effort to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

Obama/Biden

Obama opposed Iraq war from inception; Biden initially supported

*Obama and Biden have voted similarly on 90 percent of their votes while in the Senate.

• Compiled by Daily Herald staff writers David Beery, Joseph Ryan and Nick Shields.

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