GOP's Congressional seats at risk in the suburbs

When Republican party bigwigs talk about Illinois, they are not wondering whether John McCain can win the solid-blue state.

They are whispering about the growing power of Democrats in Chicago's suburbs and they fear losing even more Republican congressional seats.

"It is very disappointing," says Republican National Committee Deputy Chairman Frank Donatelli about the most recent blow to his party.

In a special March election, the party lost former U.S. House Speaker Denny Hastert's district to political neophyte Bill Foster.

Foster beat dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, who was anointed by Hastert, the longest-serving GOP House speaker.

Foster's win came despite the financially sapped national Republicans dumping $1.2 million into the race in addition to Oberweis' own $2 million campaign.

Foster faces an Oberweis rematch this November.

Republicans in districts that mark a collar around Chicago, from Lake to Will counties, are hoping Foster's win is just an aberration.

Yet, such suburban slips are occurring across the country and Foster's win may be just an extension of a more fundamental shift.

Donatelli says the party is also concerned about similar losses across the nation as many suburbs become more diverse and national issues wound the GOP, including the Iraq war, the economy and health care.

Adding to the GOP woes, Republicans simply don't have the cash to fend off many challenges.

Since taking over the House in 2006, Democrats have been rolling in campaign money. They had $55 million in the bank at the end of June to spend on congressional races across the nation.

The Republicans had just $13 million. GOP brass hope to dramatically boost that amount at lavish fundraisers during this week's convention.

For three sitting GOP representatives in the suburbs facing relatively tough challenges this fall, the lack of national money is one more unneeded obstacle.

"For us, we have to do it all on our own," says U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk, a Highland Park Republican, who is facing a repeat challenge in the 10th District from Democrat Dan Seals. "The first rule of the Kirk campaign is that there is no cavalry."

Seals surprised many when he garnered 47 percent of the vote against Kirk in 2006.

This time around, the national Democrats are expected to chip in big dollars to push Seals over the goal line. Kirk has raked in $4 million on his own to fortify his position.

In the DuPage County area, Peter Roskam is facing off against Iraq war veteran Jill Morgenthaler after edging out Tammy Duckworth in 2006. The 6th District seat was formerly held by Republican lion Henry Hyde.

Meanwhile, in the southwest suburbs Democrat Scott Harper is raising eyebrows in his first-time bid against Republican Judy Biggert, who rarely faces a tough candidate.

The Naperville businessman raised nearly as much as Biggert in the first half of this year, bringing in about $228,000 to her $240,000. But Biggert still had twice as much money as Harper in the bank at the end of June.

These well-funded, nationally supported campaigns Republicans now face were almost unheard of during the decades of GOP suburban dominance.

Hastert, Hyde and U.S. Rep. Phil Crane of Wauconda were the old guard of GOP power. They served a combined 87 years in Washington.

But today, all three are out of office.

Both Hastert and Hyde stepped down.

Crane, once the longest-serving House Republican in the nation, was the first to go in 2004 and his downfall signaled the GOP's vulnerability to suburban Democrats.

He was taken out by upstart Melissa Bean who had the help of millions of dollars in advertising from national Democrats.

Foster's win was just the latest sign that Democrats are on a roll. But Republican incumbents remain convinced the talk of Democratic gains is more spin than substance.

"I think you have to put the Oberweis-Foster factor on its own analysis trajectory," Roskam says, pointing out that it was a low-turnout election following a bitter GOP primary.

Roskam looks at the discontent Illinois Democrats are causing at the state Capitol as a sign Republicans are well positioned.

Roskam's challenger was once Gov. Rod Blagojevich's homeland security adviser.

"When you mention the name Rod Blagojevich, (voters') eyes glaze over. They are weary of the nonsense that has come out of Springfield. It has hamstrung the state," he said. "There is a lot to answer for when you have a one-party state."

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