Democrats laying groundwork to capture more Congressional seats

DENVER - One of Jan Schakowsky's biggest applause lines as she addressed Illinois Democratic delegates Monday, came when she declared, "In 148 days, George Bush no longer will be president."

And another crowd pleaser came moments later, when the Evanston congresswoman introduced Reps. Melissa Bean and Bill Foster and described as a "political earthquake" the special election victory in May that gave Foster the seat held for two decades by Republican Dennis Hastert.

Taken together, Schakowsky's rallying cries go a long way toward summing up Democrats' strategy for making further gains in suburban congressional districts long considered Republicans' exclusive property. First, recruit and run moderate Democrats whose governing philosophies mesh increasingly with changing demographics and points of view in the Northwest and West suburbs. Second, for the 2008 election, mention the widely unpopular president at every opportunity and speak as if he were joined at the hip with each and every Republican on the ballot.

Bean, of Barrington, won election in 2004, giving Democrats a seat that Republican Phil Crane had held since Richard Nixon was in the White House. Her first victory came before her party had elevated its anti-Bush strategy to the art form it is today. But Bean used the other prong of the strategy, matching both her initial campaign themes and subsequent voting record to fit a district increasingly receptive to candidates who blend calls for fiscal restraint with moderation on such issues as abortion.

Shifting suburban demographics can make that a winning strategy, said Paul Green, director of Roosevelt University's School of Policy Studies.

"In the South suburbs, it's demographics; it's race," Green said. "In the North and Northwest suburbs, there are new people; there are young people living out there. The '60s and '70s are over. Those people (who voted solidly Republican) have moved away or just simply are gone."

Looking to November, Democrats think they can make additional gains on the Illinois congressional map. increasing the 11-to-8 statewide advantage they now enjoy in House seats.

Schakowsky, in pep-rally mode with Illinois delegates, talked of winning as many as 16 seats eventually. For now, Democrats think they stand their best chance of gaining ground in the 10th District, where Mark Kirk, of Highland Park, faces his second challenge from Dan Seals, of Wilmette, and the South Suburban 11th District, where Democrat Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, is taking on Marty Ozinga, of Homer Glen, for a seat being vacated by Republican Jerry Weller. Democrats also face the challenge of helping Foster defend Hastert's seat. That, Green said, will be challenging in what he said is still a Republican district. But this time, the former scientist from Geneva has the trappings of incumbency on his side in his rematch against Jim Oberweis, of Sugar Grove.

Illinois Democrats are not alone in thinking big. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which aided Seals only at the eleventh hour in his narrow 2006 loss, has been helping from the get-go this time. And, in keeping with the blueprint, much of Seals' campaign effort for the district, which covers most of eastern Lake County and part of Northwest Cook County, is aimed at trying to tie Kirk to Bush - particularly on Iraq policy and economic distress.

Rep. Judy Biggert, a Hinsdale Republican representing the 13th District, recognizes the anti-Bush strategy, but thinks it might not prove as effective as it did two years ago.

"They think all they have to say is 'I'm not a Republican; I'm for change.' " Biggert said. "It worked two years ago, but people are really taking a serious look at the candidates. They want more than just the sound bite. They want people who have experience, and they want people who will make the right changes in policy."