Rail congestion next transit crisis?
Railway executive Matthew Rose stood before fellow industry leaders in Chicago, pointing to a map meant to tell the future of the U.S. rail freight network.
It was drenched in red -- east to west, north to south. The blotches illustrate areas where, by 2035, traffic jams could be so severe trains would grind to a halt for days with nowhere to go.
"For those of you who've ever seen a good rail meltdown, this is what it looks like," Rose, CEO of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., said. "It's literally chaos in the supply chain."
While the nation's attention is focused on air travel congestion and the high cost of fuel for highway driving, a crisis is developing under the radar for another form of transportation -- the freight trains used to deliver many of the goods that keep the U.S. economy humming.
The nation's 140,000-mile network of rails devoted to carrying everything from cars to grain is already groaning, with trains forced to stand aside for hours because of one-track rail lines.
And it's probably going to get worse over the next two decades, according to an analysis of government and industry projections by The Associated Press and interviews with experts. Any solution will have to include Chicago, which handles about 40 percent of all U.S. rail freight on 180,000 trains a year.
If nothing is done, the cost could be billions of dollars in higher shipping costs and delivery delays.
"It's not rocket science to see we have a calamity coming down the road," said Paul Bingham, a transportation analyst at research firm Global Insight.
Congestion around the country is chronic, even as the ailing economy has led to a 3 percent dip in freight train traffic in the first few months of this year compared with last year. And a new U.S. Chamber of Commerce report warns demand for freight trains is expected to double over the next 25 years.
The problem is that there's no room.
"Even if the estimates are half wrong, we can't put even 25 percent more freight in the system right now without serious implications," said Randy Mullett, an analyst for the nonprofit Transportation Research Board.
Already, delays hamper the network. A train stopped in Chicago can force slowdowns as far away as Los Angeles or Baltimore.
"It's a ripple effect," said Scott Haas, a vice president for United Parcel Service, which uses 3,000 freight cars a day, more than any other U.S. business. "Everything in my system backs up."
Many politicians are joining rail executives in sounding the alarm.
"The amount of money we're investing nationally is pathetic," Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., said during a recent congressional hearing on congested freight routes. "We're heading toward fourth-world infrastructure."
Others suggest the railroads are being alarmist.
Kenneth Kremar, another Global Insight analyst, said talk of a looming crisis serves industry interests as rail companies jockey for more money from Congress. He said investment in larger, high-tech train cars and computer systems that better pace trains should help avert logjams.
"It's illogical to assume nothing will be done," he said. "Railroads have an inherent interest in doing something. The market will respond. There's no reason think they're headed for the abyss."
Amtrak, which shares the rails with freight trains, is feeling the pinch. Its long-distance trains were on time just 42 percent of the time last year, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's inspector general.
A solution won't come cheap.
The Chamber says expanding capacity on the more than 150-year-old U.S. rail system would cost $148 billion over 30 years. Private rail companies would have to pay most of it, with federal and state tax dollars covering much of the rest.
Areas with bottlenecks include long stretches of Union Pacific Corp. lines in Southern California and the Southwest and Baltimore's Howard Street rail tunnel, connecting mid-Atlantic states to the Midwest.
But the big choke point is Chicago, where it can take up to two days for trains to wind through the city.
Nearly all the major routes of the rail freight system come through one or more of the nearly 80 rail yards here.
The Chicago hub was designed in the mid-1800s. The 500 freight trains moving through the area each day have to share tracks with 700 daily commuter trains.
Estimates for the cost of expanding capacity in Chicago range from $1.5 billion to $4 billion over six years. And routing trains around clogged cities may not sit well with suburban towns.
A government and industry plan to address freight congestion in the Chicago area is at www.createprogram.org.
Rail system facts
• Coal accounts for more than 40 percent of all freight transported by train
• Railway companies employ nearly 200,000 people; the average salary is around $70,000
• Texas has the largest number of rail freight workers, about 17,000, followed by Illinois, which employs about 13,000
• Nine companies account for more than 90 percent of North American railway revenue of more than $50 billion, with the five largest being the Union Pacific Railroad, BNSF Railway, Norfolk Southern, CSX Transportation and Canadian National Railway
Source: Associated Press information from federal agencies, Association of American Railroads