Take on the ticker
Alexander Paris Sr. of Barrington Hills is president of Barrington Asset Management, Chicago
What moved markets last week?
"I think there is really more consolidation and profit taking after the big, about 12 percent, increase in the market since mid-March. Mostly, there was not a lot of economic news (last week). So it was a good week to take a rest. One thing that was interesting was, even in the quiet economic week, it looks like we're going from the phase of (earnings) reports going from worst than expected to better than expected."
What does that portend?
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"I think economic growth is still deteriorating but it looks like it is moderating on the downside. Oil was a big problem, as usual (last week), going to new highs. But that just gives the Fed one more reason its move to a neutral stance was probably timely, because you don't want inflation to get away."
Are we in a recession?
"Despite the fact that probably three-quarters of the economists are still saying we're already in a recession, I just did a piece last night which was titled "Ain't going to be no recession." That's a little aggressive. I still think we will see some negative growth. But I believe any downturn that we experience will be slow #8230; The numbers are coming out better than expected."
What do you make of the Central Bank of Europe and the Bank of England holding the line on interest rates?
"Generally, the economy has been weakened in England. Europe has steadfastly been holding, although their economy has slowed a bit. They are much more concerned about inflation #8230; As for the effect on us, the more they cut rates the more it helps our dollar."
How is the dollar doing?
"When we cut rates, relative to the rest of the world, our currency tends to get weaker and commodity prices rise #8230; Lately it has been weak again. That's why you're seeing oil prices going up."
How does gold look?
"It had a pretty good correction after running up over $1,000 (an ounce). It pretty much reflects the weak dollar and the risk that inflation may pick up, not right away but a little bit down the road #8230;"
What might move markets this week?
"It's going to be a much heavier economic calendar, with a number of different reports. I think the big news, among the economic reports, I think will be in the manufacturing sector, where there are a few major reports coming in. Of course this is an important sector for Chicago and the Midwest #8230; Another thing is there are a lot of Fed officials giving speeches. There's somewhere close to a dozen. The always tend to roil the market."