GOP voters may be the key in Indiana
Come Tuesday, traditional Republican voters in neighboring Indiana may be the decisive vote in this year's divisive Democratic primary.
For Barack Obama, this is bad news as he struggles to reach those white, blue-collar and middle-class workers.
For Hillary Clinton, this could be a blessing, even though she has long battled what she once famously termed a "vast right-wing conspiracy."
The reason: unlike Ohio and Pennsylvania, those white, blue-collar workers -- who have kept Clinton alive and stalled Obama's momentum -- have long been solid GOP voters in the Hoosier state.
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"The big question is, 'Are these people going to grab a Democratic ballot?' " says Michael Wolf, political science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University in Fort Wayne.
In recent polls, Obama and Clinton are running neck-and-neck in Indiana, a state that largely resembles both Ohio and Pennsylvania. North Carolina also votes Tuesday, but Obama is expected to win that state.
Obama has called Indiana, which hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 1964, a "tiebreaker."
If traditional Republican voters stay out of the Democratic primary, then experts say Obama could win the state with strong support in college towns like Bloomington and among black voters in Gary and Indianapolis, coupled with a modest turnout in cities like South Bend and Fort Wayne.
Generally, Clinton is counting on strong majorities in heavily Hispanic areas like the old steel mill towns of East Chicago and Hammond as well as a strong showing among the few southern and rural Indiana Democrats.
Left in the middle is the belt of heavily populated white and middle-class northern suburbs along U.S. 30, like Merrillville and Schererville, as well as the majority of voters in South Bend and Fort Wayne, Indiana's second most populated city.
"Clinton is pulling out all the stops and aiming for those voters," Wolf said. "It is just a question of whether those voters are Democrats or not and whether they will come out for her."
For example, it was no mistake Clinton chose last week to go on Fox News' "The O'Reilly Factor," a largely conservative talk show hosted by Bill O'Reilly, for the first time in her political career. And the Indiana political landscape is also why Obama's camp has really fretted over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, a favorite topic for conservative talk shows.
Some analysts see good reasons to think these voters will pull a Democratic ballot Tuesday.
After all, this is the first time in decades Hoosiers have played a major role in such a contentious primary. Plus, there are few local Republican races drawing attention on Tuesday.
"In this case, Ohio and Pennsylvania are probably a pretty good harbinger of what is to come," said Bert Rockman, head of the political science department at Purdue University in West Lafayette.
Moreover, Hoosiers -- particularly Republican ones -- will not only have a say in what Democratic candidate wins their own state, but which one can take the nomination.
If Clinton wins Indiana, it only solidifies her argument that Obama can't win over working-class whites, a demographic key to a national win in November. But if Obama wins, the argument may fall apart.
"If Obama loses this state then, we are going all the way to the convention," said Rockman, referring to a backroom battle by party leaders at the late August gala in Denver. "There are not many doubts about that."