The challenges that Indiana primary poses for Clinton, Obama

For the first time in memory, presidential politics may lap the Indy 500 as May's hottest event in Indiana.

Pennsylvania -- like Texas, Ohio and the two dozen Super Tuesday states before them -- failed to settle the nomination battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. So Democrats now take their increasingly combative campaign to Indiana -- a decidedly red state that hasn't backed a Democrat presidential nominee in the general election since 1964.

Obama calls Indiana a "tiebreaker" state.

Clinton can practically call it home. Wednesday's campaign stop in Indianapolis marked her 15th visit to the state this spring and the 50th campaign stop for everyone in her family; Bill and Chelsea have been fixtures for weeks.

"For some of you, it probably feels as if they're moving to the state," joked Robby Mook, Clinton's Indiana campaign director, during a Wednesday news conference. "We don't think that's such a bad thing."

The state, between now and its suddenly relevant primary, will pose difficult -- and different -- challenges for each.

Clinton may well need the sort of statewide blitz that she's staging in order to overcome Obama's natural advantage of being a next-door neighbor. To date, Obama has won every primary or caucus conducted in a state adjacent to Illinois: Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri.

By most accounts, the Indiana race is a virtual dead heat. Four published polls have put Clinton slightly ahead, while two others give Obama a slight edge, according to the Daily Student, Indiana University's campus newspaper.

Obama will try to break through in a state that features some demographic factors that have confounded him elsewhere. Obama fares better than Clinton, for instance, among black voters. Indiana's black population is only 12.4 percent -- equal to the nationwide percentage but smaller than in some states that Obama has dominated.

Beyond that, Obama has held a consistent edge against Clinton among college-educated voters. Indiana has relatively fewer college graduates than either Ohio or Pennsylvania, states in which Clinton won and drew heavily among blue-collar workers and residents with less formal education.

But the blue-collar population might not offer Clinton the same advantage in Indiana that it has in other states.

Indiana's blue-collar workers, unlike their Ohio and Pennsylvania counterparts, are not heavily unionized. Moreover, many of them don't even identify themselves as Democrats and play only minor roles in organizing and getting out the vote.

"This is a Republican state," said Michael Wolf, an assistant political science professor at Indiana-Purdue University Fort Wayne, "so some of the white working-class vote that went so heavily for her in other states might not be showing up. I think a lot of Reagan Democrats who supported her in Pennsylvania and Ohio are just Republicans here in Indiana."

Moreover, what union vote Indiana does have is concentrated largely in Indiana's northwest corner -- Gary and Hammond -- which also happens to be where Hoosiers are most familiar with Obama.

"When 20 percent of voters are in someone's home media," Mook said of Indiana's northwest corner, "that's a pretty steep route to climb, but if there's a candidate we'd like to have in that fight, it's Hillary Clinton."

The Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics, affiliated with Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne, conducted extensive statewide polling a week ago. Those results, Wolf said, show that Hoosier Democrats are aligned with Democrats nationwide on issues.

Indiana's February unemployment rate stood at 4.5 percent -- better than the rate in either Ohio or Pennsylvania, where Clinton drew well among voters citing job worries. But the Downs poll showed economic worries to be easily the top concern among Indiana's Democratic voters, too. Those who listed that as their top concern split about evenly in support for Obama and Clinton, Wolf said. Indiana Democrats who called Iraq their top issue favored Obama by a significant margin, as did those who listed health care as their top concern.

The Downs Center poll shows Obama leading in northern and central Indiana and Clinton ahead in southern Indiana, which Wolf described as more socially conservative and, near the Ohio River, oriented as much toward the South as toward the Midwest.

Clinton enjoys the support of Evan Bayh, Indiana's highly popular U.S. senator, sometimes mentioned as a potential running mate. But Bayh's ability to influence voters -- or even other high-profile Democrats -- is unclear. Only one of Indiana's five U.S. Democratic congressmen has declared for either candidate.

That the race could tilt either direction seems clear. Even John Mellencamp, Indiana's native son and rock Hall of Famer can't seem to make up his mind. He warmed up the crowd for an Obama appearance in Evansville on Tuesday and will play for a Clinton event in Indianapolis on May 3.

His publicist told the Indianapolis Star that Mellencamp "supports both candidates, meaning he will lend his presence and his music to these events. But it's not to be construed as an endorsement, per se."

Hoosiers straddling the fence will have to take their cues elsewhere.