Texas Twist: State is … complex
DALLAS -- The political stakes dwarf even the state's size -- no mean feat.
As the clock ticks toward Tuesday's primaries, Texans -- along with Ohio voters -- hold the fates of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and Park Ridge native Hillary Clinton.
These two states, which declined to join other states' stampede to early primaries, will determine whether the Democratic presidential nomination race virtually ends Tuesday in victory for Obama or whether Clinton survives to fight another day.
That's not Obama spin. Former President Bill Clinton has told Texans in so many words that his wife needs to win here to keep her hopes alive.
Local polls have the two Illinois-connected candidates locked in a dead heat. Both campaigns will spend today frenetically criss-crossing a state that is as demographically and politically diverse as it is enormous.
More Coverage Campaign journals Joseph Ryan from Ohio: Soundtrack of change? style="float:left; padding: 0 6px 0 6px" /> David Beery from Texas: Texas key thanks to legislative gridlock Stories In Ohio, the unions count [03/01/08] What makes the March 4 primary states tick [02/29/08] Clinton campaign raises concerns about Texas caucus [02/29/08] Video Ohio Voters Look for Economic Miracle As for Texans, former Dallas mayor and current Obama backer Ron Kirk described Texas Democrats' mood as one of "collective euphoria."Kirk, the city's first black mayor, said Thursday excitement among Clinton's and Obama's legions, combined with unexpected Democratic success here in recent elections, has helped compensate for a long stretch of Democrats "wandering in the wilderness."Texas was solidly Democratic in the days of Lyndon Baines Johnson. But like many other southern Democrats, Texans turned to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and haven't given a Democrat their electoral votes since.Many regions remain strongly Republican, but experts say the state's political landscape is complicated. Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political science professor, said that once the Wisconsin voting ended, Clinton and Obama rushed to shore up their respective bases in Texas. Clinton, Jillson said, made a beeline to south Texas and other heavily Hispanic areas. Obama headed here to Dallas, with its black population of about 25 percent.Dallas County is increasingly hospitable to Democrats in general. The 2004 presidential race was surprisingly close, with former Texas Gov. George Bush edging John Kerry by fewer than 10,000 votes -- 50 percent to 49 percent.Kirk said the combination of many whites leaving Dallas for the suburbs and many Hispanics moving into the city proved serendipitous for Democrats.With primary voting just three days away, the Dallas news media have given considerable play to tensions between black and Hispanic voters, of the kind reported in many other cities.Kirk, for one, thinks those conflicts are overplayed."We had this exploding Hispanic population in a city that has always thought of itself as black and white," Kirk said. "What we discovered is that we had a base of African-Americans, Hispanics and progressive whites that could get each other elected."That combination, Kirk said, put a Democratic Hispanic woman, Lupe Valdez, into the sheriff's office in 2004 and then delivered a stunning near sweep of Dallas County judgeships for Democrats two years later."We discovered that we have certain common interests and that, hey, we can be a powerful coalition," Kirk said.That coalition may consist largely of black and Hispanic voters. But Carol Reed, a Dallas-based campaign consultant who has worked for Kirk and many prominent Republicans, says the city's diversity goes beyond that."I've always said that at least one of everything God made is here," Reed said. "We have a diversity that makes us different from anywhere else in the state, except possibly Houston."The black component of this region's coalition turned out in force Thursday night for an Obama rally in Fort Worth. Largely young and black, the crowd filled the 11,200-seat arena and spilled over into a large convention room to watch the proceedings on big screens hung from the ceiling. When Obama treated the spillover crowd of a couple thousand to a personal pep talk before giving his arena speech, his reception was one of near adulation.Matthew Wilson, also a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, calls Obama's overwhelming success among black voters a matter of "overwhelming pride and identity.""There's not a single issue of importance to African-American voters in which he's materially different from Hillary," Wilson said.But Jerry Stowers, a black Obama supporter from Fort Worth, said at Obama's rally that the Illinois senator's appeal is more generational than racial."I'm 41, and I think maybe the baby boomer generation has sort of had their time," Stowers said. "I think it's just time for less-divisive politics, and even if it's not really Hillary's fault, she sort of represents that more divisive era."What of Dallas-area women? Do they identify with Clinton much as black residents do with her opponent? Reed, the political consultant, said she sees occasional, but not overwhelming, evidence."I think the larger concern among women," Reed said, "is that if Hillary doesn't win that the chance to nominate a woman might not come along as soon as you'd like."But enthusiasm for Clinton and Obama has not swept up all Texans.Obama's rally impressed neither Steve Poe nor his 16-year-old daughter, Chelsea. She failed to see the source of her friends' fervor for the Illinois senator, and Steve said: "I don't think people are really interested in paying more taxes; I don't care how much money they make. A lot of people who are friends of mine are in that category who are going to pay more taxes based on his definition of wealth."