Illinoisans' views may play role up north
With a string of East Coast primaries behind them, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are immediately digging in for a critical Midwest battle in Wisconsin -- a state teetering between them.
When Illinois' neighbor to the north votes next Tuesday, the outcome could significantly affect the ever-evolving dynamic of this historic primary season.
An Obama victory there could add to his momentum and credibility as the campaign steams toward delegate-rich Ohio and Texas. Such determination lined Obama's remarks as he celebrated Tuesday's primary sweep with supporters packed into the University of Wisconsin-Madison's stadium.
"We have much further to go," Obama told the crowd of more than 17,000. "Now we carry our message through the farms and factories across this state … and all the way to the Democratic convention in Denver."
On the other hand, a Wisconsin win for Clinton would help her regain footing after seven straight primary losses to Illinois' junior senator.
The New York senator is counting on winning Ohio and Texas March 4 to derail Obama, and she kicked off her campaign in the border state Tuesday.
"I'm tested. I'm ready. Let's make it happen," Clinton belted at a boisterous El Paso rally.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is seen as a state that could go for either candidate while the recent string of primaries were downplayed by Clinton as natural Obama territory.
"We are talking about a very competitive race here," says Charles Franklin, a political science professor who studies statistics and polls at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "I would say it is roughly even right now."
The possibility of victory for either camp will keep the Democratic candidates and their surrogates circling Wisconsin for the next week. It is also expected to draw Illinois supporters north to man the phones and knock on doors for their favorite candidate.
On the Republican side, the race is so far shaping up to be less intense.
Underdog Mike Huckabee will campaign across Wisconsin this week, rallying support from social conservatives uninspired by front-runner John McCain.
Still, a Huckabee nomination remains a mathematical improbability. McCain is just a few hundred delegates short of securing the bid while the former Arkansas governor has only a few hundred delegates to his name.
It remains unclear if McCain will campaign in Wisconsin, but experts say there is a slight danger moderate Republicans - his base - could switch tickets to vote for Obama, opening the door for social conservatives to push Huckabee across the finish line.
"It just wouldn't shock me if Huckabee won here," said Paul Maslin, a Madison-based pollster and political consultant not working for any presidential candidate.
A McCain loss in Wisconsin would be a clear sign the Arizona senator's efforts to woo social conservatives are faltering.
For now, though, it appears Wisconsin's Democratic demographics make for a much tighter race between Clinton and Obama.
On Obama's side: College students, upper-income residents, moderates and independents - his core backers - make up a significant portion of voters, according to exit polls from the state's 2004 Democratic primary.
In Clinton's favor: Those voters are largely balanced out by high turnout among blue collar workers, union members, low-income residents and women, a mix that has made up a Clinton coalition in other primaries.
Both candidates are expected to work at strengthening their hold on those core groups while also attempting to rope in undecided voters.
Obama kicked off his Wisconsin campaign Tuesday night at a college stadium near the state Capitol to energize his base of young voters. Meanwhile, his surrogates, including Wisconsin's governor and Milwaukee's mayor, have been barnstorming the state's more blue collar areas.
At the same time, Clinton is not conceding the youth vote. Wisconsin has one of the highest concentrations of young voters in the nation. The former first lady dispatched daughter Chelsea Clinton early this week to make the rounds at local colleges.
Former President Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama are also expected to run the state's Democratic circuit while both candidates themselves are scheduled to give dueling speeches before party officials Saturday night.
In the end, Illinois may have its own role to play in who wins over Dairy State voters, experts say.
Obama could scrape out an edge because of his big Illinois win and high popularity ratings across the state.
"We may root against the Bears and the Cubs here, but I personally think there is something important to the regional aspect of this," Maslin said. "Obama is kind of in our neighborhood. He is in our back yard and I think that is a plus."
On the other hand, Clinton backers argue her Illinois ties -- she was raised in Park Ridge -- also make her a logical pick for Wisconsin voters.
"She is an Illinois woman. She knows the Midwest. She carries our values," said Wisconsin Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton, who has been traveling her home state on behalf of Clinton for weeks.